Du Peilin, Ni Yu, Chen Hui
Business School, University of Jinan, Jinan, 250002, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Apr;30(18):52141-52156. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-25994-7. Epub 2023 Feb 24.
The "double-carbon" policy is a new opportunity for the transformation of China's production sector. With steady economic growth, each province has proposed specific policies aimed at cleaner production. However, the interactions between regions and the complex linkages between industries have hindered the implementation of the "double-carbon" policy. In order to address this issue, we introduced a complex network framework with multiple industries at a national level. The framework aimed to clarify whether there is fluctuation diffusion in China's multi-province multi-industry carbon emission system, to identify key industries and regions, and to answer the question of "who" is the most effective in governance. The results showed that the fluctuations of industrial carbon emissions had a cross-regional diffusion effect in China indeed. The diffusion capacity of industry fluctuation depends on whether the industry is located at a "hub" position in the network. Hub industries with strong capacity can spread the carbon emission fluctuation of themselves and upstream or downstream industries to the whole country through regional interactions. This characteristic of the hub industry should be taken into account in governance to maximize the effectiveness of emission reduction. Shandong and Inner Mongolia, as important provinces for the production of intermediate products and energy chemicals in China, had a greater role to play in global carbon supply push from their hub industries than in the demand pull. The pulling capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to the national carbon demand side was greater than that of Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. These findings might have implications for environmental and economic policymaking, particularly with regard to cross-provincial coordinated systemic solutions and policy anchors for synergy with industries.
“双碳”政策是中国生产部门转型的新机遇。随着经济稳步增长，各省份都出台了旨在实现清洁生产的具体政策。然而，地区间的相互作用以及产业间复杂的联系阻碍了“双碳”政策的实施。为解决这一问题，我们在国家层面引入了一个包含多个行业的复杂网络框架。该框架旨在厘清中国多省份多行业碳排放系统中是否存在波动扩散，识别关键行业和地区，并回答“谁”在治理中最有效这一问题。结果表明，中国工业碳排放波动确实存在跨区域扩散效应。产业波动的扩散能力取决于该产业在网络中是否处于“枢纽”位置。具有强大能力的枢纽产业能够通过区域间相互作用将自身以及上下游产业的碳排放波动扩散至全国。在治理中应考虑枢纽产业的这一特性，以实现减排效果最大化。山东和内蒙古作为中国中间产品和能源化工生产的重要省份，其枢纽产业在全球碳供应推动方面的作用大于需求拉动方面。京津冀地区对全国碳需求端的拉动能力大于长江三角洲和珠江三角洲。这些发现可能对环境和经济政策制定具有启示意义，特别是在跨省协调系统解决方案以及与产业协同的政策锚定方面。
