Center for Sustainable Development and Energy Policy Research, School of Energy and Mining Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing, 100083, China.
School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing, 100083, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2024 Jan;31(5):7283-7297. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-31538-w. Epub 2023 Dec 29.
As the world's greatest energy consumer, China's energy consumption and transition have become a focus of attention. The most significant location for regional integration in the north of China is the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, where the industrial sector dominates its energy consumption. Forecasting the energy demand and structure of industrial sectors in China's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region may help to promote the energy transition and CO emission mitigation. This study conducts a model based on the year 2020 using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software and sets two scenarios (baseline scenario and emission peak scenario) to forecast the future energy demand and CO emissions of industrial sectors in China's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region until the year 2035. Moreover, the industrial sectors are classified into traditional high-energy-consuming industries, emerging manufacturing industries, daily-related light industries, and other industries. The forecasting results show that (1) The industrial energy demand of the entire Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will grow from 234 Mtce in 2020 to 317 Mtce in 2035, and the corresponding energy structure will shift from coal-based to electricity-based; (2) at the provincial level, all three provinces will experience an increase in industrial energy demand between 2020 and 2035, with Hebei experiencing the fastest average annual growth rate of 2.18% and the largest share of over 80%, and Beijing experiencing the highest average annual electrification rate of 70%; (3) at the industrial sector level, the electricity and natural gas will gradually replace other energy sources as the main energy source for industry. The most representative industrial sub-sector in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces are all traditional high-energy-consuming industries, which will account for more than 90% of the total energy demand in both Tianjin and Hebei by 2035.
作为世界上最大的能源消费国，中国的能源消费和转型已成为关注焦点。中国北方地区一体化程度最高的地区是京津冀地区，该地区的工业部门主导着其能源消费。预测中国京津冀地区工业部门的能源需求和结构可能有助于促进能源转型和 CO 排放减排。本研究基于 2020 年使用 Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) 软件建立模型，并设置了两个情景（基准情景和排放峰值情景）来预测中国京津冀地区工业部门未来的能源需求和 CO 排放，直到 2035 年。此外，工业部门分为传统高能耗产业、新兴制造业、日常相关轻工业和其他产业。预测结果表明：（1）京津冀地区整体工业能源需求将从 2020 年的 2.34 亿吨标准煤增长到 2035 年的 3.17 亿吨标准煤，相应的能源结构将从煤炭为主转向电力为主；（2）在省级层面，三省在 2020 年至 2035 年间的工业能源需求都将增长，其中河北省的年平均增长率最快，为 2.18%，占比超过 80%，北京市的年平均电气化率最高，为 70%；（3）在工业部门层面，电力和天然气将逐渐取代其他能源成为工业的主要能源。北京、天津和河北省最具代表性的工业子部门都是传统的高能耗产业，到 2035 年，它们在天津和河北省的能源总需求中都将占 90%以上。
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