Dexter D D, Whisnant J P, Connolly D C, O'Fallon W M
Department of Neurology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN 55905.
Mayo Clin Proc. 1987 Dec;62(12):1077-83. doi: 10.1016/s0025-6196(12)62499-9.
In a 20-year population-based study (1960 through 1979), we estimated the cumulative probability of (1) the occurrence of stroke after a diagnosis of angina pectoris, (2) the occurrence of stroke after a diagnosis of myocardial infarction, and (3) the occurrence of myocardial infarction or sudden unexpected death after a diagnosis of cerebral infarction. In patients in whom angina had been diagnosed, no significant difference was noted between the observed and the expected probability of stroke throughout 10 years of follow-up. In patients with a diagnosis of myocardial infarction, a significant difference was noted between observed and expected probabilities of stroke at 1 month and at 2 months. This early excess in probability of stroke was especially pronounced in the subgroup of patients with transmural myocardial infarction but not evident in those with subendocardial myocardial infarction. Among patients with a diagnosis of cerebral infarction, the difference between observed and expected probabilities of myocardial infarction or sudden unexpected death was not significant until 5 years after the cerebral infarction and showed no change thereafter.
在一项基于人群的20年研究（1960年至1979年）中，我们估计了以下情况的累积概率：（1）心绞痛诊断后发生中风的概率；（2）心肌梗死诊断后发生中风的概率；（3）脑梗死诊断后发生心肌梗死或意外猝死的概率。在已诊断为心绞痛的患者中，随访10年期间，观察到的中风概率与预期概率之间无显著差异。在诊断为心肌梗死的患者中，在1个月和2个月时观察到的中风概率与预期概率之间存在显著差异。这种中风概率的早期增加在透壁性心肌梗死患者亚组中尤为明显，但在心内膜下心肌梗死患者中不明显。在诊断为脑梗死的患者中，脑梗死诊断后5年内，观察到的心肌梗死或意外猝死概率与预期概率之间的差异不显著，此后也无变化。
