College of Economic and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China.
International Business School, Beijing Foreign Studies University, Beijing 100089, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Feb 12;20(4):3234. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20043234.
The globalization of trade has caused tremendous pressure on water resources globally, and a virtual water trade provides a new perspective on global freshwater sharing and water sustainability. No study has yet explored the structural characteristics and drivers of the evolution of global virtual water trade networks from a network structure evolution perspective. This paper aims to fill this critical gap by developing a research framework to explore how endogenous network structures and external factors have influenced the evolution of virtual water trade networks. We constructed virtual water trade networks for 62 countries worldwide from 2000 to 2015 and used an innovative combination of multi-regional input-output data and stochastic actor-oriented models for analytical purposes. Our results support the theoretical hypothesis of ecologically unequal exchange and trade drivers, arguing that virtual water flows from less developed countries to developed countries under global free trade and that unequal trade patterns lead to excessive consumption of virtual water in less developed countries. The results partially support the theoretical content of water endowment and traditional gravity models, finding that trade networks are expanding to farther and larger markets, confirming that national water scarcity levels do not impact the evolution of virtual water trade networks. Finally, we point out that meritocratic links, path dependence, reciprocity, and transmissive links have extreme explanatory power for the evolutionary development of virtual water networks.
贸易全球化给全球水资源带来了巨大压力，虚拟水贸易为全球淡水资源共享和水可持续性提供了新视角。目前还没有研究从网络结构演化的角度探讨全球虚拟水贸易网络演化的结构特征和驱动因素。本文旨在通过构建一个研究框架来填补这一关键空白，以探讨内生网络结构和外部因素如何影响虚拟水贸易网络的演化。我们构建了全球 62 个国家 2000 年至 2015 年的虚拟水贸易网络，并创新性地结合使用多区域投入产出数据和随机主体模型进行分析。研究结果支持生态不平等交换和贸易驱动因素的理论假设，认为在全球自由贸易下，虚拟水从欠发达国家流向发达国家，不平等的贸易模式导致欠发达国家过度消耗虚拟水。研究结果部分支持水资源禀赋和传统引力模型的理论内容，发现贸易网络正在向更远和更大的市场扩张，这证实了国家水资源短缺水平并不影响虚拟水贸易网络的演化。最后，我们指出，精英联系、路径依赖、互惠和传递联系对虚拟水网络的演化发展具有极强的解释力。
