Institute of Environment and Ecology, Shandong Normal University, Ji'nan, Shandong, 250038, China.
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
J Environ Manage. 2020 Dec 1;275:111242. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111242. Epub 2020 Aug 26.
Massive amounts of water embodied in commodities are transferred via interregional trade which increase the water scarcity risk of exporting region. This study proposed an integrated evaluation framework for sectoral physical water use risks and virtual water flow risks in Northeast China. The initial water use risks for different sectors by provinces were first assessed based on sectoral physical water consumption. Then based on the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model, a virtual water trade network was established, and simultaneously the virtual scarce water in sectoral export of intermediate goods and final goods were accounted to investigate the virtual water flow risks by sectors. Finally, interprovincial embodied scarce water transfers between Northeast China and the rest of China were mapped, and by grafting the concept of 'spillover risk' to the virtual water trade, we analyzed the spillover risk difference of virtual water trade between regions. The results showed that the sectors of Agriculture (Ag) and Other manufacturing (OM) presented the highest risk of water use while Nonmetal mining (NmM) belonged to the potential high-risk sectors of water use for Northeast China. The sectors exported more virtual scarce water in intermediate goods also exported more in the final goods; and the sector of Manufacture of food products and tobacco processing (FP) was the largest contributor to the large exporting virtual scarce water for Liaoning and Jilin while Ag in Heilongjiang province was the largest exporter. The cumulative spillover risk index from rest of China to Liaoning province through virtual water trade is the highest; and the main risk spilt provinces to Northeast China were Xinjiang, Jiangsu, Anhui and Hebei province. The proposed risk framework for water utilization and trade may help promote the redistribution of water resources and explore pathways for sustainable management of water resources.
大量蕴含在商品中的水资源通过区域间贸易转移，增加了出口地区的水资源短缺风险。本研究提出了一个综合评价框架，用于评估中国东北地区部门实物用水风险和虚拟水流动风险。首先，根据部门实物用水量评估各省不同部门的初始用水风险。然后，基于多区域投入产出（MRIO）模型，建立虚拟水贸易网络，并同时核算中间品和最终品部门出口的虚拟稀缺水资源，以调查部门的虚拟水流动风险。最后，绘制了中国东北地区与中国其他地区之间的省际蕴含稀缺水资源转移图，并通过将“溢出风险”概念嫁接到虚拟水贸易中，分析了区域间虚拟水贸易的溢出风险差异。结果表明，农业（Ag）和其他制造业（OM）部门的用水风险最高，而非金属矿采选业（NmM）属于中国东北地区潜在的高用水风险部门。出口更多中间品虚拟稀缺水资源的部门，最终品出口也更多；辽宁和吉林的最大虚拟稀缺水资源出口部门是食品和烟草加工业（FP），而黑龙江省的 Ag 则是最大出口部门。通过虚拟水贸易从中国其他地区向辽宁的累积溢出风险指数最高；向东北地区溢出风险最大的省份是新疆、江苏、安徽和河北省。提出的水资源利用和贸易风险框架可以帮助促进水资源的再分配，并探索水资源可持续管理的途径。
