Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China.
Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research, School of Medicine, Center for Health Policy, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-2004, USA.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Feb 15;20(4):3395. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20043395.
Research assessing the trend in online search activity on monkeypox (mpox) and the correlation with the mpox epidemic at the global and national level is scarce. The trend of online search activity and the time-lag correlations between it and daily new mpox cases were estimated by using segmented interrupted time-series analysis and Spearman correlation coefficient (rs), respectively. We found that after the declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), the proportion of countries or territories with increasing changes in online search activity was lowest in Africa (8.16%, 4/49), and a downward trend in online search activity was highest in North America (8/31, 25.81%). The time-lag effect of global online search activity on daily new cases was significant (rs = 0.24). There were eight countries or territories with significant time-lag effect; the top three countries or territories were Brazil (rs = 0.46), United States (rs = 0.24), and Canada (rs = 0.24). Interest behavior in mpox was insufficient, even after the declaration of PHEIC, especially in Africa and North America. Online search activity could be used as an early indicator of the outbreak of mpox at the global level and in epidemic countries.
研究评估了猴痘（mpox）在线搜索活动的趋势以及与全球和国家层面 mpox 疫情的相关性，但相关研究很少。本研究采用分段中断时间序列分析和 Spearman 相关系数（rs）分别估计了在线搜索活动趋势及其与每日新增 mpox 病例之间的时间滞后相关性。我们发现，宣布国际关注的突发公共卫生事件（PHEIC）后，在线搜索活动变化呈上升趋势的国家或地区比例最低的是非洲（8.16%，4/49），在线搜索活动呈下降趋势的国家或地区比例最高的是北美（8/31，25.81%）。全球在线搜索活动对每日新增病例的时间滞后效应显著（rs = 0.24）。有 8 个国家或地区存在显著的时间滞后效应，前三个国家或地区分别是巴西（rs = 0.46）、美国（rs = 0.24）和加拿大（rs = 0.24）。即使在宣布 PHEIC 之后，对 mpox 的兴趣行为仍然不足，特别是在非洲和北美。在线搜索活动可作为全球和流行国家 mpox 爆发的早期指标。
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