Association of pathogen-specific clinical mastitis in the first 100 days of first lactation with productive lifetime: An observational study comparing competing risks models for death and sale with the Cox model.

The objective of this observational study was to study the association between clinical mastitis (CM) (Streptococcus spp., Staphylococcus aureus, Staphylococcus spp., Escherichia coli, Klebsiella spp., cases with other treated or other not treated organisms, CM without growth) occurring in a dairy cow's first 100 days (d) of her first lactation and her total productive lifetime, ending in death or sale (for slaughter). Data were collected from 24,831 cows in 5 New York Holstein herds from 2004 to 2014. Two analytical approaches were compared. First, removals (death, sale) were treated as competing events in separate survival analyses, in proportional subdistribution hazards models. In one, death was coded as the event of interest and sale as the competing event; in another, sale was the event of interest and death the competing event. Second, traditional survival analysis (Cox proportional hazards) was conducted. In all models, the time variable was number of days from date of first calving until event (death or sale) date; if the cow was alive at study end, she was censored. Models were stratified by herd. Ten percent of cows died; 48.4 % were sold. In the competing risks analysis, E. coli and CM without growth were associated with death; the former with an increased hazard rate of death, the latter with a lower one. Streptococcus spp., Staph. aureus, Klebsiella spp., cases with other treated or untreated organisms, and CM without growth were associated with higher hazard rates of sale. The Cox proportional hazards model's hazard rates were higher than those in the competing risks model in which death was the event of interest, and resembled those in the model in which sale was the event of interest. Four additional Cox models, omitting dead or sold cows, or censoring each, were also fitted; hazard ratios were similar to the above models. Proportional subdistribution hazards models were appropriate due to competing risks (death, sale); they produce less-biased estimates. A study limitation is that while proportional subdistribution hazards models were appropriate, they have the illogical feature of keeping subjects at risk for the event of interest even after experiencing the competing event. This is, however, necessary in estimating cumulative incidence functions. Another limitation concerns pathogen variability among study farms, implying that CM decisions are farm-specific. Misclassification of 'dead' vs. 'sold' cows was also possible. Nevertheless, the findings may help in optimizing management of cows contracting specific types of CM early in productive lifetime.