Section of Epidemiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.
J Dairy Sci. 2013 Aug;96(8):4993-5007. doi: 10.3168/jds.2012-6232. Epub 2013 Jun 13.
The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of a first and repeated cases of bacteria-specific clinical mastitis (CM) on the risk of mortality and culling in Holstein dairy cows. The pathogens studied were Streptococcus spp., Staphylococcus aureus, Staphylococcus spp., Escherichia coli, Klebsiella spp., Trueperella pyogenes, others, and no growth on aerobic culture. A total of 50,166 lactations were analyzed from 5 large, high-milk-producing dairy herds in New York State from 2003/2004 to 2011. Generalized linear mixed models with a Poisson error distribution were used to study the effects of parity, month of lactation, CM, calving diseases, pregnancy status, current season, and economic values on the risk of mortality and culling. Among first-lactation cows, the presence of a first CM case generally exposed cows to a greater risk of mortality in the current month (compared with the absence of a first case). This was especially acute with a first case of Klebsiella spp., where cows were 4.5 times more at risk [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.7-7.6] of mortality, and with a first case of E. coli were 3.3 times more at risk (95% CI: 2.5-4.5). In first-parity cows, the risk of culling generally increased with a case of bacteria-specific CM. This was observed among cows with a first case of T. pyogenes [relative risk=10.4 (95% CI: 8.4-12.8)], a first case of Klebsiella spp. [relative risk=6.7 (95% CI: 5.5-8.1)], a first case of Staph. aureus [relative risk=4.8 (95% CI: 2.7-8.4)], a first case of E. coli [relative risk=3.1 (95% CI: 2.7-3.6)], and a third case of Klebsiella spp. [relative risk=5.0 (95% CI: 3.1-8.0)]. In general, the presence of a first or second/third case resulted in cows in parity ≥2 with a greater risk of mortality. This was greatest for cows with a first case of Klebsiella spp. [relative risk=3.7 (95% CI: 3.3-4.3)], followed by a second/third case of Klebsiella spp. [relative risk=3.2 (95% CI: 2.5-4.0)], a first case of E. coli [relative risk=3.0 (95% CI: 2.7-3.3)], and a first case of other CM [relative risk=1.8 (95% CI: 1.6-2.0)]. Among cows of parity ≥2, the risk of culling was greater for cows as they progressed through lactations [i.e., cows in parity 4+ were 2.1 (95% CI: 2.0-2.2) times more likely to be culled compared with cows in lactation 2 (the baseline)]. The risk of culling dependent on the cow's characteristics can be easily calculated from the parameter estimates in the provided tables.
本研究旨在评估牛临床型乳腺炎(CM)首次和再次发病对荷斯坦奶牛死亡和淘汰风险的影响。研究的病原体包括链球菌属、金黄色葡萄球菌、葡萄球菌属、大肠杆菌、克雷伯氏菌属、化脓隐秘杆菌、其他和需氧培养无生长。从纽约州的 5 个大型高产奶牛场 2003/2004 年至 2011 年的 50166 个泌乳期中分析了数据。采用泊松误差分布的广义线性混合模型研究了胎次、泌乳月、CM、产犊疾病、妊娠状况、当前季节和经济价值对死亡和淘汰风险的影响。在初产牛中,首次出现 CM 病例通常会增加牛在当前月份死亡的风险(与不存在首次病例相比)。首次出现克雷伯氏菌属的情况尤为严重,牛的死亡风险增加了 4.5 倍[95%置信区间(CI):2.7-7.6],首次出现大肠杆菌的风险增加了 3.3 倍(95%CI:2.5-4.5)。在初产牛中,首次发生特定细菌 CM 会导致淘汰风险增加。首次发生化脓隐秘杆菌[相对风险=10.4(95%CI:8.4-12.8)]、首次发生克雷伯氏菌属[相对风险=6.7(95%CI:5.5-8.1)]、首次发生金黄色葡萄球菌[相对风险=4.8(95%CI:2.7-8.4)]、首次发生大肠杆菌[相对风险=3.1(95%CI:2.7-3.6)]和第三次发生克雷伯氏菌属[相对风险=5.0(95%CI:3.1-8.0)]的牛淘汰风险增加。一般来说,首次出现或第二次/第三次出现会增加胎次≥2 的牛的死亡风险。首次出现克雷伯氏菌属的牛风险最大[相对风险=3.7(95%CI:3.3-4.3)],其次是第二次/第三次出现克雷伯氏菌属[相对风险=3.2(95%CI:2.5-4.0)]、首次出现大肠杆菌[相对风险=3.0(95%CI:2.7-3.3)]和首次出现其他 CM[相对风险=1.8(95%CI:1.6-2.0)]。在胎次≥2 的牛中,随着泌乳期的进展,淘汰风险增加[即,胎次 4+的牛淘汰风险比泌乳期 2 的牛高 2.1 倍(95%CI:2.0-2.2)]。可根据提供的表格中的参数估计值轻松计算出取决于牛特征的淘汰风险。