Neuropsychiatric Epidemiology Unit, Department of Psychiatry and Neurochemistry, Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, Sahlgrenska Academy, Centre for Ageing and Health (AgeCap) at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
Region Västra Götaland, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Psychiatry, Cognition and Old Age Psychiatry Clinic, Gothenburg, Sweden.
J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2023 Jun 1;78(6):1069-1077. doi: 10.1093/gerona/glad071.
Recent studies suggest a decline in the age-specific incidence and prevalence of dementia. However, results are mixed regarding trends among octogenarians. We investigated time trends in the prevalence and incidence of dementia in 3 population-based cohorts of 85-90-year olds. We also examined if there were different time trends for men and women.
We examined population-based birth cohorts within the Gothenburg H70 Birth Cohort Studies born 1901-02, 1923-24, and 1930, at ages 85 (N = 1481) and 88 (N = 840) years. The first 2 cohorts were also examined at age 90 (N = 450). The incidence was examined in 1 109 individuals free from dementia at baseline using information from the examination at age 88 or register data. All 3 cohorts were examined with identical methods.
The prevalence of dementia decreased from 29.8% in 1986-87 to 21.5% in 2008-10 and 24.5% in 2015-16 among 85-year olds, and from 41.9% in 1989-90 to 28.0% in 2011-12 to 21.7% in 2018-19 among 88-year olds, and from 41.5% in 1991-92 to 37.2% in 2013-14 among 90-year olds. The decline was most accentuated among women. The incidence of dementia per 1 000 risk-years from ages 85 to 89 declined from 48.8 among those born 1901-02 to 37.9 in those born 1923-24 to 22.5 among those born 1930.
The prevalence and incidence of dementia decreased substantially over 3 decades among octogenarians. This might slow down the projected increase in cases of dementia expected by the increasing number of octogenarians during the following decades.
最近的研究表明，痴呆症的年龄特异性发病率和患病率有所下降。然而，关于 80 多岁人群的趋势，结果却存在差异。我们调查了三个基于人群的 85-90 岁老年人队列中痴呆症的患病率和发病率的时间趋势。我们还研究了男性和女性是否存在不同的时间趋势。
我们研究了哥德堡 H70 出生队列研究中的三个基于人群的出生队列，这些队列出生于 1901-02 年、1923-24 年和 1930 年，在 85 岁（N=1481）和 88 岁（N=840）时进行了检查。前两个队列还在 90 岁时进行了检查（N=450）。通过在基线时未患有痴呆症的 1109 名个体的信息，使用在 88 岁时进行的检查或登记数据，检查了发病率。所有三个队列均采用相同的方法进行了检查。
85 岁人群中，1986-87 年痴呆症的患病率为 29.8%，2008-10 年降至 21.5%，2015-16 年降至 24.5%；88 岁人群中，1989-90 年痴呆症的患病率为 41.9%，2011-12 年降至 28.0%，2018-19 年降至 21.7%；90 岁人群中，1991-92 年痴呆症的患病率为 41.5%，2013-14 年降至 37.2%。这种下降在女性中最为明显。从 85 岁到 89 岁，每 1000 人年风险人群中痴呆症的发病率从出生于 1901-02 年的 48.8 人降至出生于 1923-24 年的 37.9 人，再降至出生于 1930 年的 22.5 人。
在过去的 30 年中，80 多岁人群的痴呆症患病率和发病率显著下降。这可能会减缓预计在未来几十年中由于 80 多岁人群数量的增加而导致的痴呆症病例数的增加。
