Londe David W, Moeller Anna K, Lukacs Paul M, Fuhlendorf Samuel D, Davis Craig A, Elmore Robert Dwayne, Chitwood M Colter
008c Ag Hall, Department of Natural Resources Ecology and Management Oklahoma State University Stillwater Oklahoma USA.
Wildlife Biology Program, Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation University of Montana Missoula Montana USA.
Ecol Evol. 2023 Feb 22;13(2):e9830. doi: 10.1002/ece3.9830. eCollection 2023 Feb.
Recent declines in eastern wild turkeys () have prompted increased interest in management and research of this important game species. However, the mechanisms underlying these declines are unclear, leaving uncertainty in how best to manage this species. Foundational to effective management of wildlife species is understanding the biotic and abiotic factors that influence demographic parameters and the contribution of vital rates to population growth. Our objectives for this study were to (1) conduct a literature review to collect all published vital rates for eastern wild turkey over the last 50 years, (2) perform a scoping review of the biotic and abiotic factors that have been studied relative to wild turkey vital rates and highlight areas that require additional research, and (3) use the published vital rates to populate a life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) and identify the vital rates that make the greatest contribution to population growth. Based on published vital rates for eastern wild turkey, we estimated a mean asymptotic population growth rate () of 0.91 (95% CI = 0.71, 1.12). Vital rates associated with after-second-year (ASY) females were most influential in determining population growth. Survival of ASY females had the greatest elasticity (0.53), while reproduction of ASY females had lower elasticity (0.21), but high process variance, causing it to explain a greater proportion of variance in . Our scoping review found that most research has focused on the effects of habitat characteristics at nest sites and the direct effects of harvest on adult survival, while research on topics such as disease, weather, predators, or anthropogenic activity on vital rates has received less attention. We recommend that future research take a more mechanistic approach to understanding variation in wild turkey vital rates as this will assist managers in determining the most appropriate management approach.
近期东部野生火鸡数量的下降引发了人们对这一重要狩猎物种管理和研究的更多关注。然而，这些数量下降背后的机制尚不清楚，这使得在如何最好地管理该物种方面存在不确定性。有效管理野生动物物种的基础是了解影响种群统计学参数的生物和非生物因素，以及关键率对种群增长的贡献。我们这项研究的目标是：（1）进行文献综述，收集过去50年里所有已发表的东部野生火鸡的关键率；（2）对已研究的与野生火鸡关键率相关的生物和非生物因素进行范围综述，并突出需要进一步研究的领域；（3）使用已发表的关键率进行生命阶段模拟分析（LSA），并确定对种群增长贡献最大的关键率。根据已发表的东部野生火鸡的关键率，我们估计平均渐近种群增长率（）为0.91（95%置信区间=0.71，1.12）。与第二年之后（ASY）的雌性火鸡相关的关键率在决定种群增长方面最具影响力。ASY雌性火鸡的存活率具有最大的弹性（0.53），而ASY雌性火鸡的繁殖弹性较低（0.21），但过程方差较高，这使得它在中解释了更大比例的方差。我们的范围综述发现，大多数研究集中在巢穴栖息地特征的影响以及捕猎对成年火鸡存活率的直接影响上，而关于疾病、天气、捕食者或人为活动等主题对关键率影响的研究较少受到关注。我们建议未来的研究采用更具机制性的方法来理解野生火鸡关键率的变化，因为这将有助于管理者确定最合适的管理方法。
