Impact of interventions scenarios targeting three main vascular risk factors on the future burden of dementia in France.

The epidemiological and societal burden of dementia is expected to increase in the coming decades due to the world population aging. In this context, the evaluation of the potential impact of intervention scenarios aiming at reducing the prevalence of dementia risk factors is an active area of research. However, such studies must account for the associated changes in mortality and the dependence between the risk factors. Using micro-simulations, this study aims to estimate the changes in dementia burden in France in 2040 according to intervention scenarios targeting the prevention or treatment of hypertension, diabetes and physical inactivity. Accounting for their communality and their effects on mortality, the results show that the disappearance of hypertension, diabetes and physical inactivity in France in 2020 could decrease dementia prevalence by 33% among men and 26% among women in 2040 and increase the life expectancy without dementia at age 65 by 3.4 years (men) and 2.6 years (women). Among the three factors, the prevention of hypertension would be the most efficient. These projections rely on current estimates of the risk of dementia and death associated with risk factors. Thanks to the R package developed they could be refined for different countries or different interventions and updated with new estimates.