Karaye Ibraheem M, Farhadi Kameron, Sengstock Grace, Shahidullah Shihab, Taravella Rachel, Nasir Rida
Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY 11549, United States.
Department of Population Health, Hofstra University, 106 Hofstra Dome, Hempstead, NY 11549, United States.
J Safety Res. 2023 Feb;84:411-417. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2022.12.004. Epub 2022 Dec 12.
This study aimed to examine the trends in fatal unintentional drowning rates among persons aged ≤ 29 years by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and the U.S. census region from 1999 through 2020.
Data were abstracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's WONDER database. International Classification of Diseases Codes, 10th Revision; V90, V92, W65-W74 were used to identify persons aged ≤ 29 years who died of unintentional drowning. Age adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) were extracted by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and U.S. census region. Five-year simple moving averages were used to assess trends overall, and Joinpoint regression models were fitted to estimate average annual percentage changes (AAPC) and annual percentage changes (APC) in AAMR during the study period. 95 % confidence intervals were derived using Monte Carlo Permutation.
Between 1999 and 2020, a total of 35,904 persons aged ≤ 29 years died of unintentional drowning in the United States. Mortality rates were highest among males (age adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) = 2.0 per 100,000; 95 % CI: 2.0-2.0), American Indians/Alaska Natives (AAMR = 2.5; 95 % CI: 2.3-2.7), decedents aged 1-4 years (AAMR = 2.8; 95 % CI: 2.7-2.8), and decedents from the Southern U.S. census region (AAMR = 1.7; 95 % CI: 1.6-1.7). Unintentional drowning deaths, overall, have stabilized from 2014 to 2020 (APC = 0.6; 95 % CI: -1.6, 2.8). Recent trends have either declined or stabilized by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and U.S. census region.
Unintentional fatal drowning rates have improved in recent years. The results reinforce the need for continued research efforts and improved policies for sustained reduction in trends.
本研究旨在调查1999年至2020年期间，29岁及以下人群中，按性别、年龄、种族/族裔和美国人口普查地区划分的意外溺水死亡率趋势。
数据摘自疾病控制与预防中心的WONDER数据库。使用国际疾病分类代码第10版；V90、V92、W65-W74来识别29岁及以下因意外溺水死亡的人员。按年龄、性别、种族/族裔和美国人口普查地区提取年龄调整死亡率（AAMR）。使用五年简单移动平均值来评估总体趋势，并拟合Joinpoint回归模型以估计研究期间AAMR的平均年度百分比变化（AAPC）和年度百分比变化（APC）。使用蒙特卡洛排列法得出95%置信区间。
1999年至2020年期间，美国共有35904名29岁及以下人员死于意外溺水。死亡率在男性中最高（年龄调整死亡率（AAMR）=每10万人2.0例；95%置信区间：2.0-2.0）、美国印第安人/阿拉斯加原住民中（AAMR=2.5；95%置信区间：2.3-2.7）、1-4岁死者中（AAMR=2.8；95%置信区间：2.7-2.8）以及美国南部人口普查地区的死者中（AAMR=1.7；95%置信区间：1.6-1.7）。总体而言，2014年至2020年期间意外溺水死亡人数已趋于稳定（APC=0.6；95%置信区间：-1.6，2.8）。近年来，按年龄、性别、种族/族裔和美国人口普查地区划分的趋势要么下降，要么趋于稳定。
近年来意外溺水死亡率有所改善。结果强调需要继续开展研究工作并改进政策，以持续降低趋势。
