State Key Laboratory of Agricultural Microbiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, Hubei 430070, China; School of Veterinary Medicine, College of Science, Health, Engineering and Education, Murdoch University, Western Australia 6150, Australia.
State Key Laboratory of Agricultural Microbiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, Hubei 430070, China.
Prev Vet Med. 2023 Apr;213:105887. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2023.105887. Epub 2023 Mar 2.
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is one of the priority epidemic diseases in dairy cattle in China. Continuous surveillance and evaluation of the control programs will help on improving the efficiency of bTB control policy. We designed this study to investigate both animal and herd level prevalence of bTB, as well as to determine the associated factors in dairy farms in Henan and Hubei provinces. A cross-sectional study was conducted from May 2019 to September 2020 in central China (Henan and Hubei provinces). We sampled 40 herds in Henan and six herds in Hubei via stratified systematic sampling and administrated a questionnaire consisting of 35 factors. A total of 4900 whole blood samples were collected from 46 farms, including 545 calves < six months old and 4355 cows ≥ six months old. This study demonstrated a high animal-(18.65%, 95% CI: 17.6-19.8) and herd-level (93.48%, 95%CI: 82.1-98.6) prevalence of bTB in dairy farms in central China. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and negative binomial regression models showed that herd positivity was associated with the practice of introducing new animals (RR = 1.7, 95%CI: 1.0-3.0, p = 0.042), and changing the disinfectant water in the wheel bath at the farm entrance every three days or less (RR = 0.4, 95%CI: 0.2-0.8, p = 0.005) which reduced the odds of herd positivity. In addition, the result illustrated that testing cows with a higher age group (≥ 60 months old) (OR=1.57, 95%CI: 1.14-2.17, p = 0.006) and within the early stage of lactation (DIM=60-120 days, OR=1.85, 95%CI: 1.19-2.88, p = 0.006) and the later stage of lactation (DIM≥301 days, OR=2.14, 95%CI: 1.30-3.52, p = 0.003) could maximize the odds of detecting seropositive animals. Our results have plenty of benefit to improve bTB surveillance strategies in China and elsewhere in the world. The LASSO and the negative binomial regression models were recommended when dealing with high herd-level prevalence and high dimensional data in questionnaire-based risk studies.
牛结核病（bTB）是中国奶牛养殖业的优先流行疫病之一。持续监测和评估控制计划有助于提高 bTB 控制政策的效率。我们设计了这项研究，旨在调查河南省和湖北省奶牛场的动物和畜群 bTB 流行率，并确定相关因素。2019 年 5 月至 2020 年 9 月，在中国中部（河南省和湖北省）进行了一项横断面研究。我们通过分层系统抽样在河南省抽取了 40 个畜群，在湖北省抽取了 6 个畜群，并对包含 35 个因素的问卷进行了管理。我们从 46 个农场共采集了 4900 份全血样本，包括 545 份<6 个月大的犊牛和 4355 份≥6 个月大的母牛。本研究表明，中国中部奶牛场的动物（18.65%，95%CI：17.6-19.8）和畜群（93.48%，95%CI：82.1-98.6）bTB 流行率均较高。最小绝对收缩和选择算子（LASSO）和负二项回归模型表明，畜群阳性与引入新动物的做法有关（RR=1.7，95%CI：1.0-3.0，p=0.042），畜群阳性还与畜舍入口处轮浴池每三天或更短时间更换消毒剂水有关（RR=0.4，95%CI：0.2-0.8，p=0.005），这降低了畜群阳性的几率。此外，结果表明，对年龄较大的母牛（≥60 个月）（OR=1.57，95%CI：1.14-2.17，p=0.006）和泌乳早期（DIM=60-120 天，OR=1.85，95%CI：1.19-2.88，p=0.006）和泌乳后期（DIM≥301 天，OR=2.14，95%CI：1.30-3.52，p=0.003）进行母牛检测可最大限度地提高血清阳性动物的检出率。我们的研究结果对改进中国和世界其他地区的 bTB 监测策略具有重要意义。当处理问卷风险研究中高畜群流行率和高维数据时，建议使用 LASSO 和负二项回归模型。
