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基于 COVID-19 患者入院数据的死亡率风险预测研究。

Research of mortality risk prediction based on hospital admission data for COVID-19 patients.

机构信息

Department of Applied Statistics, School of Statistics, Xi'an University of Finance and Economics, Xi'an 710100, China.

出版信息

Math Biosci Eng. 2023 Jan 11;20(3):5333-5351. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023247.

Abstract

As COVID-19 continues to spread across the world and causes hundreds of millions of infections and millions of deaths, medical institutions around the world keep facing a crisis of medical runs and shortages of medical resources. In order to study how to effectively predict whether there are risks of death in patients, a variety of machine learning models have been used to learn and predict the clinical demographics and physiological indicators of COVID-19 patients in the United States of America. The results show that the random forest model has the best performance in predicting the risk of death in hospitalized patients with COVID-19, as the COVID-19 patients' mean arterial pressures, ages, C-reactive protein tests' values, values of blood urea nitrogen and their clinical troponin values are the most important implications for their risk of death. Healthcare organizations can use the random forest model to predict the risks of death based on data from patients admitted to a hospital due to COVID-19, or to stratify patients admitted to a hospital due to COVID-19 based on the five key factors this can optimize the diagnosis and treatment process by appropriately arranging ventilators, the intensive care unit and doctors, thus promoting the efficient use of limited medical resources during the COVID-19 pandemic. Healthcare organizations can also establish databases of patient physiological indicators and use similar strategies to deal with other pandemics that may occur in the future, as well as save more lives threatened by infectious diseases. Governments and people also need to take action to prevent possible future pandemics.

摘要

随着 COVID-19 在全球范围内持续传播,导致数亿人感染和数百万人死亡,世界各地的医疗机构一直面临着医疗资源短缺和运转危机。为了研究如何有效预测患者是否存在死亡风险,使用了各种机器学习模型来学习和预测美国 COVID-19 患者的临床人口统计学和生理指标。结果表明,随机森林模型在预测 COVID-19 住院患者死亡风险方面表现最佳,因为 COVID-19 患者的平均动脉压、年龄、C 反应蛋白测试值、血尿素氮值及其临床肌钙蛋白值对其死亡风险具有最重要的影响。医疗机构可以使用随机森林模型根据 COVID-19 住院患者的数据来预测死亡风险,或者根据这五个关键因素对 COVID-19 住院患者进行分层,从而通过适当安排呼吸机、重症监护室和医生来优化诊断和治疗过程,从而在 COVID-19 大流行期间有效利用有限的医疗资源。医疗机构还可以建立患者生理指标数据库,并使用类似策略应对未来可能发生的其他大流行,以及拯救更多受到传染病威胁的生命。政府和人民也需要采取行动,防止未来可能发生的大流行。

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