Department of Basic Sciences, College of Science and Theoretical Studies, Saudi Electronic University, Dammam 32256, Saudi Arabia.
National Higher School of Mathematics Genius and Modelization, National University of Sciences, Technologies, Engineering and Mathematics, Abomey, Benin Republic.
Math Biosci Eng. 2023 Jan;20(2):3324-3341. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023156. Epub 2022 Dec 5.
The initial COVID-19 vaccinations were created and distributed to the general population in 2020 thanks to emergency authorization and conditional approval. Consequently, numerous countries followed the process that is currently a global campaign. Taking into account the fact that people are being vaccinated, there are concerns about the effectiveness of that medical solution. Actually, this study is the first one focusing on how the number of vaccinated people might influence the spread of the pandemic in the world. From the Global Change Data Lab "Our World in Data", we were able to get data sets about the number of new cases and vaccinated people. This study is a longitudinal one from 14/12/2020 to 21/03/2021. In addition, we computed Generalized log-Linear Model on count time series (Negative Binomial distribution due to over dispersion in data) and implemented validation tests to confirm the robustness of our results. The findings revealed that when the number of vaccinated people increases by one new vaccination on a given day, the number of new cases decreases significantly two days after by one. The influence is not notable on the same day of vaccination. Authorities should increase the vaccination campaign to control well the pandemic. That solution has effectively started to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in the world.
由于紧急授权和有条件批准，2020 年首次向普通人群推出并分发了 COVID-19 疫苗。因此，许多国家都遵循了目前的全球疫苗接种计划。考虑到人们正在接种疫苗，人们对该医疗解决方案的有效性存在担忧。实际上，这项研究是首次关注接种人数如何影响全球大流行的传播。我们从“全球变化数据实验室”（Global Change Data Lab）“我们的数据世界”（Our World in Data）中获取了有关新发病例和接种人数的数据集。这项研究是一项从 2020 年 12 月 14 日到 2021 年 3 月 21 日的纵向研究。此外，我们还对计数时间序列（由于数据中存在过度分散，采用负二项分布）进行了广义对数线性模型计算，并实施了验证测试以确认我们结果的稳健性。研究结果表明，在给定日期每增加一次新接种疫苗，两天后新发病例数将显著减少一次。在接种疫苗的当天，这种影响并不明显。当局应加大疫苗接种力度，以有效控制大流行。该解决方案已开始有效减少 COVID-19 在全球的传播。
