Niu Yingnan, Zhang Caixia, Xie Gaodi, Niu Huan
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A11 Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China.
School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055, China.
Foods. 2023 Feb 24;12(5):964. doi: 10.3390/foods12050964.
The quantity and quality of cropland plays an important role in ensuring food security. In order to explore spatiotemporal patterns of the extent to which cropland satisfies people's grain need, we integrate multi-source heterogeneous data to investigate in which era, and in which region, the cultivated land can meet people's food demands. It turns out that in the past 30 years, with the exception of the late 1980s, the amount of cropland could satisfy people's grain needs at the nation scale. However, more than 10 provinces (municipality/autonomous region), mainly located in western China and southeast coastal areas, have been unable to meet the grain needs of local people. We projected the guarantee rate to the late 2020s. Our study concludes that the guarantee rate of cropland is estimated to be higher than 150% in China. Compared to 2019, except Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning, Jilin, Ningxia, as well as Heilongjiang in the Sustainability scenario, and Shanghai in the Sustainability and the Equality scenarios, the guarantee rate of cultivated land will increase in every province (municipality/autonomous region) in 2030. This study has reference value for the study of China's cultivated land protection system, as well as important significance for China's sustainable development.
耕地的数量和质量对保障粮食安全起着重要作用。为了探究耕地满足人们粮食需求程度的时空格局，我们整合多源异构数据，以研究在哪个时代、哪个地区耕地能够满足人们的粮食需求。结果表明，在过去30年中，除了20世纪80年代末，全国范围内的耕地数量能够满足人们的粮食需求。然而，超过10个省份（直辖市/自治区），主要位于中国西部和东南沿海地区，无法满足当地居民的粮食需求。我们预测了到2020年代末的保障率。我们的研究得出结论，中国耕地的保障率预计高于150%。与2019年相比，除北京、天津、辽宁、吉林、宁夏以及可持续发展情景下的黑龙江，以及可持续发展和平等情景下的上海外，2030年每个省份（直辖市/自治区）的耕地保障率都将提高。本研究对中国耕地保护制度的研究具有参考价值，对中国的可持续发展也具有重要意义。
