Jiang Yulin, He Xiongkui, Yin Xiaogang, Chen Fu
College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Farming System, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100193, China; College of Science, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; College of Agricultural Unmanned System, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China.
College of Science, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; College of Agricultural Unmanned System, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Apr 20;870:161928. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161928. Epub 2023 Jan 31.
The increased requirement of food production with the rising population challenges limited cultivation land in China. The abandoned cropland has high potential in grain production to ensure China's food security. However, the spatial distributions of abandoned cropland in China are understudied and therefore it is difficult to estimate its potential grain production. Our study proposed a new definition of abandoned cropland considering unique multiple cropping systems in China, and estimate the abandoned cropland distribution and grain productivity potential by using Landsat-8 and GF-1 images under deep learning technology. The area of abandoned cropland in three main grain-producing regions was approximately 1.53 million hectares during 2014-2017. The estimated images agreed with the field survey and the national agricultural statistical data with the accuracy larger than 87 %. The spatial distribution of abandoned cropland in China was scattered and a high abandonment rate observed in the Middle-lower Yangtze River Plain. Moreover, the uncultivated cropland accounted for approximately 50 % of the total area of abandoned cropland. The maximum production potential of abandoned cropland could reach 8.5 million tons, including 2.7, 2.5 and 3.3 million tons of maize, wheat and rice, respectively. The exploitation of abandoned cropland is also beneficial for additional soybean production in China. National-scale estimation of abandoned cropland in China is crucial for land use policy making and cropland protection, as well the implementation of national food security strategy.
随着人口增长，对粮食产量的需求增加，这给中国有限的耕地带来了挑战。弃耕地在粮食生产方面具有很大潜力，有助于保障中国的粮食安全。然而，中国弃耕地的空间分布情况尚未得到充分研究，因此难以估算其潜在的粮食产量。我们的研究提出了一个考虑到中国独特复种制度的弃耕地新定义，并利用深度学习技术，通过Landsat - 8和GF - 1影像估算了弃耕地的分布及粮食生产潜力。2014 - 2017年期间，三大主要粮食产区的弃耕地面积约为153万公顷。估算影像与实地调查及国家农业统计数据相符，准确率超过87%。中国弃耕地的空间分布较为分散，长江中下游平原弃耕率较高。此外，未耕种的农田约占弃耕地总面积的50%。弃耕地的最大生产潜力可达850万吨，其中玉米、小麦和水稻分别为270万吨、250万吨和330万吨。开发弃耕地对中国增加大豆产量也有益处。对中国弃耕地进行全国范围的估算，对于土地利用政策制定、耕地保护以及国家粮食安全战略的实施至关重要。
