Unmet need and intention to use as predictors of adoption of contraception in 10 Performance Monitoring for Action geographies.

The determinants of fertility typically feature demand as the key motivation driver for contraceptive use. Yet relatively little is known about the extent to which demand for contraception predicts future contraceptive use, primarily due to the lack of longitudinal data that captures these measures at different time points. Two ways in which demand is often measured are unmet need and intention to use. Despite its intended use as a population measure, unmet need is commonly used in individual-level analyses and as a marker for individual-level demand for contraception. Few studies have assessed the extent to which unmet need predicts or reflects women's true latent demand as demonstrated by their future contraceptive use; the same is true for intention to use contraception in the future. We expand on previous research to assess whether and the degree to which unmet need and intention to use contraception predict adoption of contraception within a year, among nonusers in ten representative geographies using Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) data. Findings show that in nine of ten sites, intention to use within a year was significantly associated with subsequent adoption, while in eight of ten sites, unmet need for spacing or limiting was not associated with adoption. Our results are important for programs as they try to identify true dynamic demand for contraception.