Department of Agriculture Earth and Environmental Sciences, Mwenge Catholic University, Moshi, Tanzania.
Department of Geography, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Environ Manage. 2023 Oct;72(4):785-804. doi: 10.1007/s00267-023-01792-2. Epub 2023 Mar 13.
Pegged on Protection Motivation Theory, a modified socio-cognitive model of private adaptation to climate change and variability was deployed in order to provide a better understanding of the determinants of small-scale farmers' adaptation intent and adoption of adaptation strategies in semi-arid lowlands of Mwanga District. In this regard, adaptation was conceptualized as a two-step process encompassing farmers' perceptions that climate was changing and farmers' response to changes. Basing on a pragmatic philosophy, a cross-sectional sequential explanatory mixed methods research design was deployed. During the first step-process, categorical data were collected through administration of a closed-ended survey questionnaire to 328 household heads. Binary and proportional odds logistic regressions were run through IBM SPSS (Version 20) in order to analyze categorical data for testing nine (9) null hypotheses. Statistically significant results were established when p values were < 0.05 at 95% confidence intervals. During the second step-process, qualitative data were generated through focus group discussions with 30 participants, in-depth interviews with 16 key informants, and participant observations and subjected to iterative thematic content analysis. The findings revealed that income, village's geographical location, farming system, membership to farmer-based group, competitive price for produce, credit, age, education, and extension service positively influenced farmers' adoption of adaptation strategies while workforce and perceived risk of rain on crop yields negatively influenced farmers' adoption of adaptation strategies. Thus, it was concluded that farmers' adaptation intent and adoption of adaptation strategies in the study area were largely explained by objective adaptive capacity rather than cognitive factors.
基于保护动机理论，本研究采用了一种经过修正的私人适应气候变化和变异性的社会认知模型，以便更好地理解小规模农民适应意图和适应策略采用的决定因素。在这方面，适应被概念化为一个两步过程，包括农民对气候变化的看法和农民对变化的反应。基于实用主义哲学，采用了横向序列解释性混合方法研究设计。在第一步过程中，通过向 328 户户主发放封闭式调查问卷收集了分类数据。通过 IBM SPSS（版本 20）运行二项和比例优势逻辑回归，以分析用于测试九个（9）零假设的分类数据。当置信区间为 95%时，p 值 < 0.05，则建立了统计学上显著的结果。在第二步过程中，通过与 30 名参与者进行焦点小组讨论、与 16 名关键信息提供者进行深入访谈以及参与者观察，生成了定性数据，并对其进行迭代主题内容分析。研究结果表明，收入、村庄地理位置、耕作制度、农民组织成员身份、农产品有竞争力的价格、信贷、年龄、教育和推广服务对农民采用适应策略有积极影响，而劳动力和对作物产量降雨风险的感知则对农民采用适应策略有负面影响。因此，研究得出结论，研究区域的农民适应意图和适应策略的采用主要是由客观适应能力而不是认知因素决定的。
