Yang Guanglei, Zhang Guoxing, Cao Dongqin, Zha Donglan, Su Bin
School of Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.
College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China.
iScience. 2023 Feb 24;26(3):106263. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106263. eCollection 2023 Mar 17.
Cities in China, as elsewhere, are increasingly playing a crucial role in mitigating climate change. We developed a panel dataset on renewable energy transition in Chinese cities, and assessed the CO emissions reduction of city-level renewable energy transition. We found that city-level renewable energy transition only reduced 446 million tonnes of CO emissions from 2005 to 2019. Moreover, the 2030 carbon peak target will be missed in the business--usual scenario. The CO emissions reduction of city-level renewable energy transition will significantly increase in the policy constraint scenario and in the technology breakthrough scenario, and the 2030 carbon peak target will likely be reached in both these scenarios, with a range of possible CO emissions in 2030 equal to 8.34-10.43 and 8.00-10.07 billion tonnes, respectively. In this study, we were the first to assess the historical contribution and prospective trajectory of CO emissions reduction of China's city-level renewable energy transition.
与其他地方一样，中国的城市在缓解气候变化方面正发挥着越来越关键的作用。我们编制了一份关于中国城市可再生能源转型的面板数据集，并评估了城市层面可再生能源转型的二氧化碳减排情况。我们发现，2005年至2019年期间，城市层面的可再生能源转型仅减少了4.46亿吨二氧化碳排放。此外，在常规情景下将无法实现2030年碳达峰目标。在政策约束情景和技术突破情景下，城市层面可再生能源转型的二氧化碳减排量将显著增加，并且在这两种情景下都有可能实现2030年碳达峰目标，2030年的二氧化碳排放量可能分别在83.4亿至104.3亿吨以及80.0亿至100.7亿吨之间。在本研究中，我们首次评估了中国城市层面可再生能源转型的二氧化碳减排历史贡献和未来轨迹。
