Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.
College of Oceanography, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China.
Environ Geochem Health. 2023 Jul;45(7):4719-4735. doi: 10.1007/s10653-023-01529-4. Epub 2023 Mar 15.
The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) has undergone widespread polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) pollution. In this study, we simulated the spatial distribution of atmospheric benzo[a]pyrene (BaP, the most carcinogenic PAH) in the YRD in 2016 and 2030 under different emission scenarios using a 3-D atmospheric transport model and evaluated the lung cancer risks posed by BaP during the study years. The purpose of this study is to suggest targeted policy recommendations for policy-makers to mitigate BaP pollution through numerical simulation. Our results showed that the average BaP concentration in the YRD was 0.30 ng/m in 2016; however, a significant spatial variation was observed, with the highest BaP concentration in Shanghai (0.59 ng/m). The population-weighted incremental lifetime lung cancer risk (PILCR) was 6.67 × 10 in 2016, whereas it ranged from 2.70 × 10 to 1.05 × 10 in 2030 under the five emission scenarios. A higher future population density in the YRD region could increase lung cancer risk. In all scenarios, Shanghai had the highest number of lung cancer cases (range: 208-476). The results suggest that BaP pollution could be effectively improved through the synergistic effect of reducing activity levels and improving technology. Finally, we provide specific suggested pollution control strategies (e.g., accelerating the use of clean energy in rural areas) for atmospheric BaP in the YRD.
长三角地区（YRD）经历了广泛的多环芳烃（PAH）污染。在这项研究中，我们使用三维大气传输模型模拟了 2016 年和 2030 年不同排放情景下大气苯并[a]芘（BaP，最致癌的 PAH）在 YRD 中的空间分布，并评估了研究期间 BaP 对肺癌的风险。本研究旨在通过数值模拟为决策者提出有针对性的政策建议，以减轻 BaP 污染。我们的研究结果表明，2016 年 YRD 地区的平均 BaP 浓度为 0.30ng/m，但存在显著的空间变化，上海的 BaP 浓度最高（0.59ng/m）。2016 年的人群加权增量终生肺癌风险（PILCR）为 6.67×10，而在 2030 年的五个排放情景下，PILCR 范围为 2.70×10 至 1.05×10。未来 YRD 地区更高的人口密度可能会增加肺癌风险。在所有情景下，上海的肺癌病例数最多（范围：208-476）。结果表明，通过降低活动水平和提高技术的协同作用，可以有效改善 BaP 污染。最后，我们为 YRD 地区大气 BaP 提供了具体的污染控制策略建议（例如，加快农村地区清洁能源的使用）。
