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中国政府投资对高质量经济发展的影响的实证分析——基于空间杜宾模型的研究。

An empirical analysis of the impact of Chinese government investment on high-quality economic development--A study based on spatial Dubin model.

机构信息

Business School, Jiangsu Open University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.

School of Shipping and Economics, Guangzhou Institute of Navigation, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2023 Mar 15;18(3):e0283073. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0283073. eCollection 2023.

Abstract

China's economy has shifted from the stage of high-speed growth to the stage of high-quality development. This paper selects panel data of 30 provinces, municipalities directly under the Central Government and autonomous regions (except Tibet) in mainland China with the time dimension of 2006-2016, selects indicators from five dimensions of innovation, coordination, greenness, openness and sharing, uses principal component analysis to construct a system of indicators of high-quality economic development, and uses the spatial Durbin model to empirically the impact of government investment behavior in the three industries on the regional economic high-quality development was studied. The results show that: first, there is a significant positive spatial correlation between China's economic quality development. Second, government investment in different industries has different effects on the quality development of the economy. Investment in the tertiary industry can boost employment, raise income level, promote economic quality development, and enhance sharing, coordination and innovation; investment in the secondary industry can enhance innovation, but because of the "crowding-out effect", it will reduce openness and sharing, and is not conducive to promoting economic quality development; investment in the primary industry can Investment in the primary industry can significantly improve coordination, but it will reduce innovation, greenness, openness and sharing, which will also have a negative impact on the overall high-quality economic development. Third, there is a significant spatial spillover effect of government investment behavior on regional economic quality development, and the economic quality development of this region will have an impact on neighboring regions. Finally, based on the research results, this paper puts forward countermeasure suggestions for promoting high-quality economic development.

摘要

中国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段。本文选取了中国大陆 30 个省、自治区、直辖市(不含西藏)2006-2016 年的面板数据,从创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五个维度选取指标,运用主成分分析法构建高质量经济发展指标体系,运用空间杜宾模型实证研究了政府在三大产业的投资行为对区域经济高质量发展的影响。结果表明:一是中国经济质量发展存在显著的正向空间相关性。二是政府在不同产业的投资对经济质量发展有不同的影响。第三产业投资可以促进就业、提高收入水平、推动经济质量发展、增强共享性、协调性和创新性;第二产业投资可以增强创新能力,但由于“挤出效应”,会降低开放性和共享性,不利于推动经济质量发展;第一产业投资可以显著提高协调性,但会降低创新、绿色、开放性和共享性,也会对整体高质量经济发展产生负面影响。三是政府投资行为对区域经济高质量发展存在显著的空间溢出效应,本地区的经济质量发展会对周边地区产生影响。最后,根据研究结果,本文提出了促进高质量经济发展的对策建议。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3153/10016692/69774009b36c/pone.0283073.g001.jpg

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