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基于观测和模式模拟的中国旱涝事件转折变化大幅增加。

Substantial increase in abrupt shifts between drought and flood events in China based on observations and model simulations.

机构信息

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China; School of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai'an 223300, China.

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China; CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology, Shanghai 200438, China.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Jun 10;876:162822. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162822. Epub 2023 Mar 14.

Abstract

Drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) refers to the rapid transformation between droughts and floods, posing serious threats to ecological security, food production, and human safety. Previous studies have insufficiently investigated DFAA events at large regional scales using high-resolution observations and model simulations. In this study, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index was used to construct the DFAA magnitude index, which considers the asymmetric effects of drought and flood alternations. Four types of DFAA events were then investigated using high-resolution station observations and NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 model simulations. The results showed that hotspot areas of drought-flood and flood-drought alternation events were mainly in the northern and eastern parts of China, while the hotspot areas of drought-flood-drought and flood-drought-flood alternation events were obviously smaller than those of drought-flood and flood-drought alternation events. Drought-flood, flood-drought, and drought-flood-drought alternation events showed significant upward trends at rates of 0.075, 0.057, and 0.051 events/decade, respectively, and these increases were attributed to significant increases in moderate, severe, and extreme events across China during 1981-2020. Generally, the total number of DFAA events above moderate grade in the northern, central, and some areas in the southern parts of China increased obviously (>50 %) during 2001-2020 compared to 1981-2000. NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 can reasonably represent the multi-year averages and long-term trends of precipitation, temperature, and DFAA events in China. Except for the flood-drought-flood alternation events, the other three types of DFAA events showed significant increasing trends in the future, with higher rates under the SSP585 scenario than under the SSP245 scenario (e.g., drought-flood alternation events at rates of 0.033 and 0.046 events/decade under SSP245 and SSP585, respectively, during 1981-2100). DFAA events above the moderate grade were predicted to increase significantly in both 2032-2065 and 2066-2099 compared to 1981-2014, especially in northern China for the 2066-2099 under the SSP585 scenario.

摘要

旱涝急转是指干旱和洪涝在短时间内迅速转换,对生态安全、粮食生产和人类安全构成严重威胁。先前的研究使用高分辨率观测和模型模拟对大区域尺度的旱涝急转事件的研究还不够充分。本研究利用标准化降水蒸散指数构建旱涝急转幅度指数,考虑了旱涝转换的非对称效应。然后利用高分辨率站点观测和 NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 模型模拟研究了四种类型的旱涝急转事件。结果表明,旱涝急转和洪涝旱转事件的热点区主要在中国的北部和东部,而旱涝旱涝急转和洪涝洪涝急转事件的热点区明显小于旱涝急转和洪涝旱转事件。旱涝急转、洪涝旱转和旱涝旱涝急转事件分别以 0.075、0.057 和 0.051 次/decade 的速率呈显著上升趋势,这归因于 1981-2020 年中国中、重度和极端旱涝急转事件的显著增加。总体而言,2001-2020 年与 1981-2000 年相比,中国北部、中部和南部部分地区的旱涝急转事件中强度高于中度的总次数明显增加(>50%)。NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 可以合理地表示中国降水、温度和旱涝急转事件的多年平均值和长期趋势。除了洪涝洪涝急转事件外,其他三种类型的旱涝急转事件在未来都呈现出显著的上升趋势,在 SSP585 情景下的上升速率高于 SSP245 情景(例如,在 SSP245 和 SSP585 情景下,旱涝急转事件的上升速率分别为 0.033 和 0.046 次/decade,在 1981-2100 年)。与 1981-2014 年相比,2032-2065 年和 2066-2099 年旱涝急转事件高于中度的预测值都将显著增加,特别是在 SSP585 情景下 2066-2099 年的中国北部。

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