Department of Geography and Spatial Information Techniques, Ningbo University, Ningbo, China.
Zhejiang Collaborative Innovation Center & Ningbo Universities Collaborative Innovation Center for Land and Marine Spatial Utilization and Governance Research, Ningbo, China.
PLoS One. 2024 Aug 14;19(8):e0307494. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0307494. eCollection 2024.
Global warming has increased the probability of extreme climate events, with compound extreme events having more severe impacts on socioeconomics and the environment than individual extremes. Utilizing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we predicted the spatiotemporal variations of compound extreme precipitation-high temperature events in China under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) across two future periods, and analyzed the changes in exposed populations and identified influencing factors. From the result, we can see that, the CMIP6 effectively reproduces precipitation patterns but exhibits biases. The frequency of compound event rises across SSPs, especially under high radiative forcing, with a stronger long-term upward trend. Furthermore, the economically developed areas, notably China's southeastern coast and North China Plain, will be hotspots for frequent and intense compound extreme events, while other regions will see reduced exposure. Finally, in the long-term future (2070-2100), there is a noteworthy shift in population exposure to compound events, emphasizing the increasing influence of population factors over climate factors. This highlights the growing importance of interactions between population and climate in shaping exposure patterns.
全球变暖增加了极端气候事件的可能性，复合极端事件对社会经济和环境的影响比单一极端事件更为严重。利用耦合模式比较计划第六阶段（CMIP6），我们预测了在三种共享社会经济路径（SSP）下，中国未来两个时期复合极端降水-高温事件的时空变化，并分析了暴露人口的变化，确定了影响因素。结果表明，CMIP6 有效地再现了降水模式，但存在偏差。复合事件的频率在 SSP 下上升，特别是在高辐射强迫下，长期上升趋势更强。此外，经济发达地区，特别是中国东南沿海和华北平原，将成为频繁和强烈的复合极端事件的热点地区，而其他地区的暴露将减少。最后，在长期未来（2070-2100 年），人口对复合事件的暴露发生了显著变化，这强调了人口因素对气候因素的影响越来越大。这突显了人口和气候之间相互作用在塑造暴露模式方面的重要性不断增加。
