Wu Sijia, Luo Ming, Lau Gabriel Ngar-Cheung, Zhang Wei, Wang Lin, Liu Zhen, Lin Lijie, Wang Yijing, Ge Erjia, Li Jianfeng, Fan Yuanchao, Chen Yimin, Liao Weilin, Wang Xiaoyu, Xu Xiaocong, Qi Zhixin, Huang Ziwei, Chan Faith Ka Shun, Chen David Yongqin, Liu Xiaoping, Pei Tao
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Nat Commun. 2025 Apr 22;16(1):3543. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-58544-5.
Rapid temperature flips are sudden shifts from extreme warm to cold or vice versa-both challenge humans and ecosystems by leaving a very short time to mitigate two contrasting extremes, but are yet to be understood. Here, we provide a global assessment of rapid temperature flips from 1961 to 2100. Warm-to-cold flips favorably follow wetter and cloudier conditions, while cold-to-warm flips exhibit an opposite feature. Of the global areas defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, over 60% have experienced more frequent, intense, and rapid flips since 1961, and this trend will expand to most areas in the future. During 2071-2100 under SSP5-8.5, we detect increases of 6.73-8.03% in flip frequency (relative to 1961-1990), 7.16-7.32% increases in intensity, and 2.47-3.24% decreases in transition duration. Global population exposure will increase over onefold, which is exacerbated in low-income countries (4.08-6.49 times above the global average). Our findings underscore the urgency to understand and mitigate the accelerating hazard flips under global warming.
快速温度骤变是指从极端温暖突然转变为寒冷，或反之亦然——这两种情况都给人类和生态系统带来了挑战，因为留给缓解两种极端情况的时间非常短，但目前仍未被充分理解。在此，我们对1961年至2100年的快速温度骤变进行了全球评估。暖到冷的骤变往往伴随着更湿润和多云的天气状况，而冷到暖的骤变则呈现相反的特征。在政府间气候变化专门委员会定义的全球区域中，自1961年以来，超过60%的区域经历了更频繁、更强烈和更快速的骤变，而且这种趋势在未来将扩展到大多数地区。在SSP5-8.5情景下的2071-2100年期间，我们发现骤变频率增加了6.73-8.03%（相对于1961-1990年），强度增加了7.16-7.32%，过渡持续时间减少了2.47-3.24%。全球人口暴露将增加一倍以上，在低收入国家这种情况更为严重（比全球平均水平高出4.08-6.49倍）。我们的研究结果强调了理解和缓解全球变暖下加速的灾害骤变的紧迫性。
