School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
J Epidemiol Community Health. 2023 Jun;77(6):391-397. doi: 10.1136/jech-2022-219996. Epub 2023 Mar 16.
Interpersonal violence is a major public health concern with alcohol use a known risk factor. Despite alcohol taxation being an effective policy to reduce consumption; Hong Kong, contrary to most developed economies, embarked on an alcohol tax reduction and elimination policy.
To assess the impact of the alcohol tax reductions, we analysed population-based hospitalisation data for assault from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority, and violent and sexual crimes recorded by the Hong Kong Police Force (2004-2018). We conducted an interrupted time series using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models on monthly rates. Breakpoints in March 2007 and March 2008 were applied separately.
The 2007 tax cut was associated with sustained increases in violence-related hospitalisation rates for 35-49 age group (female: 0.19%, p=0.007; male: 0.22%, p<0.001; overall: 0.16%, p=0.007); and an immediate increase of 51.3% (p=0.005) in the rate of sexual crimes reported. Results for the 35-49 age group after the 2008 tax cut were similar with sustained increases in hospitalisation rates (female: 0.21%, p=0.010; male: 0.23%, p<0.001; overall: 0.17%, p<0.001). The 2008 tax cut was also associated with immediate increases in hospitalisation rates in children (female: 33.1%, p=0.011; male: 49.2%, p<0.001, overall: 31.5%, p=0.007). For both tax cuts, results were insignificant in males and females for other age groups (15-34 and 50+ years).
Both alcohol tax reductions in 2007 and 2008 were in some age groups associated with increases in violence-related hospitalisations and reports of sexual assault even in an environment of low crime.
人际暴力是一个主要的公共卫生关注点，而饮酒是已知的风险因素。尽管对酒精征税是减少消费的有效政策；但香港与大多数发达经济体相反，实施了酒精减税和取消政策。
为了评估酒精税减免的影响，我们分析了香港医院管理局的基于人群的袭击住院数据，以及香港警察部队记录的暴力和性犯罪数据（2004-2018 年）。我们使用季节性自回归综合移动平均模型进行了月度比率的中断时间序列分析。2007 年 3 月和 2008 年 3 月分别应用了断点。
2007 年的减税与 35-49 岁年龄组的暴力相关住院率持续上升有关（女性：0.19%，p=0.007；男性：0.22%，p<0.001；总体：0.16%，p=0.007）；性犯罪报告率立即增加了 51.3%（p=0.005）。2008 年减税之后，35-49 岁年龄组的结果类似，住院率持续上升（女性：0.21%，p=0.010；男性：0.23%，p<0.001；总体：0.17%，p<0.001）。2008 年的减税还与儿童住院率的立即增加有关（女性：33.1%，p=0.011；男性：49.2%，p<0.001，总体：31.5%，p=0.007）。对于这两次减税，在其他年龄组（15-34 岁和 50 岁以上），男性和女性的结果均不显著。
2007 年和 2008 年的两次酒精税减免都与某些年龄组的暴力相关住院率和性侵犯报告的增加有关，即使在犯罪率低的环境下也是如此。
