Public Policy and Economics, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0245, USA.
J Health Econ. 2013 Jan;32(1):261-7. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2012.11.003. Epub 2012 Nov 9.
The last time that federal excise taxes on alcoholic beverages were increased was 1991. The changes were larger than the typical state-level changes that have been used to study price effects, but the consequences have not been assessed due to the lack of a control group. Here we develop and implement a novel method for utilizing interstate heterogeneity to estimate the aggregate effects of a federal tax increase on rates of injury fatality and crime. We provide evidence that the relative importance of alcohol in violence and injury rates is directly related to per capita consumption, and build on that finding to generate estimates. A conservative estimate is that the federal tax (which increased alcohol prices by 6% initially) reduced injury deaths by 4.5% (6480 deaths), in 1991, and had a still larger effect on violent crime.
最后一次提高联邦酒精饮料消费税是在 1991 年。这些变化比典型的州一级的变化要大，这些变化被用来研究价格效应，但由于缺乏对照组，因此没有评估其后果。在这里，我们开发并实施了一种新的方法，利用州际差异来估计联邦税收增加对伤害死亡率和犯罪率的总体影响。我们提供的证据表明，酒精在暴力和伤害率中的相对重要性与人均消费量直接相关，并在此基础上进行了估算。一个保守的估计是，联邦税收（最初使酒精价格上涨了 6%）使 1991 年的伤害死亡人数减少了 4.5%（6480 人死亡），对暴力犯罪的影响更大。
