Korená Hillayová Michaela, Holécy Ján, Korísteková Katarina, Bakšová Marta, Ostrihoň Milan, Škvarenina Jaroslav
Department of Forest Economics and Administration, Faculty of Forestry, Technical University in Zvolen, T. G. Masaryka 24, 960 01 Zvolen, Slovakia.
Department of Forest Economics and Administration, Faculty of Forestry, Technical University in Zvolen, T. G. Masaryka 24, 960 01 Zvolen, Slovakia.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Jul 1;337:117620. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117620. Epub 2023 Mar 17.
The challenge to the sustainable development of forestry in the Eurasian temperate - boreal zone is the increase in the frequency and severity of natural disturbances due to global climate change. In this study, a mathematical model for predicting the risk of wildfires in spruce stands growing in the territory of Slovak Paradise National Park under climate change has been proposed and tested. Wildfire risk is described in terms of the observed probabilities of the destruction of spruce stands in relation to their age for a period of 10 years. As the indicators of assumed climate change, the time series of daily values of four fire weather indices (Angstrőm, Nesterov, Baumgartner, and the Meteorological Forest Fire Risk Index) for the period 1951-2019 have been analysed. The results obtained indicated the significant dependence of the observed increasing annual population proportions of burnt areas on the gradually increasing annual population proportions of risky days recorded and evaluated by using the common scales of risk classification. We found that ongoing climate change has a significant impact on increasing the risk of fires. The Meteorological Forest Fire Risk Index has proven to be the most suitable measure for predicting the probability of fire occurrence under the climate conditions in the experimental territory. The indicated risk of fire occurrence in spruce stands under the assumption of a climatic change is substantially higher than in the case when this assumption is neglected. This information can also serve as a basis for the formulation of efficient landscape fire protection measures focused on building the infrastructure to support the efficient retardation of propagation, including the quick suppression of this detrimental natural hazard.
欧亚温带 - 寒温带地区林业可持续发展面临的挑战是全球气候变化导致自然干扰的频率和强度增加。在本研究中，提出并测试了一个用于预测斯洛伐克天堂国家公园境内气候变化下云杉林野火风险的数学模型。野火风险是根据10年内云杉林被毁的观测概率与其年龄的关系来描述的。作为假定气候变化的指标，分析了1951 - 2019年期间四个火灾天气指数（安斯特罗姆、涅斯捷罗夫、鲍姆加特纳和气象森林火灾风险指数）的日值时间序列。所得结果表明，观测到的烧毁面积年人口比例增加与使用通用风险分类量表记录和评估的危险日年人口比例逐渐增加之间存在显著相关性。我们发现，持续的气候变化对火灾风险增加有重大影响。气象森林火灾风险指数已被证明是预测实验区域气候条件下火灾发生概率的最合适指标。在假定气候变化的情况下，云杉林火灾发生的指示风险明显高于忽略该假定的情况。这些信息也可作为制定高效景观火灾防护措施的基础，这些措施侧重于建设基础设施以支持有效延缓火灾蔓延，包括快速抑制这种有害的自然灾害。
