Modelling the epidemiology of malaria and spread of HRP2-negative Plasmodium falciparum following the replacement of HRP2-detecting rapid diagnostic tests.

Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are dominated by products which use histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2) to detect Plasmodium falciparum. The emergence of parasites lacking the pfhrp2 gene can lead to high rates of false-negative results amongst these RDTs. One solution to restore the ability to correctly diagnose falciparum malaria is to switch to an RDT which is not solely reliant on HRP2. This study used an agent-based stochastic simulation model to investigate the impact on prevalence and transmission caused by switching the type of RDT used once false-negative rates reached pre-defined thresholds within the treatment-seeking symptomatic population. The results show that low transmission settings were the first to reach the false-negative switch threshold, and that lower thresholds were typically associated with better long-term outcomes. Changing the diagnostic RDT away from a HRP2-only RDT is predicted to restore the ability to correctly diagnose symptomatic malaria infections, but often did not lead to the extinction of HRP2-negative parasites from the population which continued to circulate in low density infections, or return to the parasite prevalence and transmission levels seen prior to the introduction of the HRP2-negative parasite. In contrast, failure to move away from HRP2-only RDTs leads to near fixation of these parasites in the population, and the inability to correctly diagnose symptomatic cases. Overall, these results suggest pfhrp2-deleted parasites are likely to become a significant component of P. falciparum parasite populations, and that long-term strategies are needed for diagnosis and surveillance which do not rely solely on HRP2.