70 岁以上挪威人使用家庭护理服务的趋势及 2050 年预测：1995-2017 年 HUNT 研究

Trends in the use of home care services among Norwegians 70+ and projections towards 2050: The HUNT study 1995-2017.

机构信息

Department of Physical Health and Ageing, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.

Icelandic Gerontological Research Institute, Reykjavik, Iceland.

出版信息

Scand J Caring Sci. 2023 Sep;37(3):752-765. doi: 10.1111/scs.13158. Epub 2023 Mar 26.

DOI:10.1111/scs.13158

PMID:36967552

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Life expectancy (LE) is increasing worldwide, while there is lack of information on how this affects older individuals' use of formal home care services.

AIM

We aimed to decompose LE into years with and without home care services and estimate projected number of users towards 2050 in Norway for people 70 years or older.

METHODS

This study is based on a sample of 25,536 participants aged 70 years and older in the Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT) survey 2 (1995-1997), 3 (2006-2008), or 4 (2017-2019) linked with national data on mortality. Prevalence of home care services was standardised to the Norwegian population by age and sex. The Sullivan method was used to estimate expected years with and without home help services and nursing services for the years 1995, 2006 and 2016. Data from HUNT4 and Statistics Norway were used to estimate projected use of these services between 2020 and 2050.

RESULTS

During 1995-2017, the use of home help services decreased from 22.6% to 6.2% (p < 0.001), and from 6.4% to 5.5% (p = 0.004) for home nursing services. Adjusted for age and sex, the use of home help services decreased significantly over time (p < 0.001), while home nursing services were stable (p = 0.69). LE at age 70 increased from 11.9 to 15.3 years in men (p < 0.05) during 1995-2017, and from 14.7 to 17.1 in women (p < 0.05). In the same period, the expected years receiving home help decreased from 2.6 to 1.1 in men (p < 0.05), and from 4.4 to 2.1 in women (p < 0.05). The expected years receiving home nursing increased from 0.6 to 0.9 in men (p < 0.05), and from 1.3 to 1.7 in women (p < 0.05). Projected numbers of people 70+ in Norway in need of either of these services were estimated to rise from 64,000 in 2020 to 160,000 in 2050.

CONCLUSION

While overall life expectancy increased, the expected years receiving home help have decreased and home nursing slightly increased among the Norwegian population aged 70 years and older during 1995-2017. However, the substantial increase in the projected number of older adults using home care services in the future is an alert for the current health care planners.

摘要

背景

全球预期寿命（LE）不断延长，但对于这如何影响老年人群体对正规家庭护理服务的使用，我们知之甚少。

目的

我们旨在将 LE 分解为使用和不使用家庭护理服务的年限，并估计到 2050 年挪威 70 岁及以上人群对这两种服务的需求数量。

方法

本研究基于特隆赫姆健康研究（HUNT）调查 2（1995-1997 年）、3（2006-2008 年）或 4（2017-2019 年）中 25536 名 70 岁及以上参与者的样本，这些参与者与国家死亡率数据相关联。按年龄和性别对家庭护理服务的流行率进行标准化，以适用于挪威人口。使用 Sullivan 法估计 1995 年、2006 年和 2016 年有和没有家庭帮助服务和护理服务的预期年限。使用 HUNT4 和挪威统计局的数据来估计 2020 年至 2050 年期间对这些服务的预计使用情况。

结果

在 1995 年至 2017 年期间，家庭帮助服务的使用率从 22.6%降至 6.2%（p<0.001），家庭护理服务的使用率从 6.4%降至 5.5%（p=0.004）。调整年龄和性别后，家庭帮助服务的使用率随着时间的推移显著下降（p<0.001），而家庭护理服务则保持稳定（p=0.69）。70 岁男性的预期寿命从 1995 年至 2017 年期间的 11.9 年增加到 15.3 年（p<0.05），女性从 14.7 年增加到 17.1 年（p<0.05）。同期，男性接受家庭帮助的预期年限从 2.6 年降至 1.1 年（p<0.05），女性从 4.4 年降至 2.1 年（p<0.05）。男性接受家庭护理的预期年限从 0.6 年增加到 0.9 年（p<0.05），女性从 1.3 年增加到 1.7 年（p<0.05）。预计到 2050 年，挪威 70 岁及以上需要这些服务的人数将从 2020 年的 64000 人增加到 160000 人。