Le Mouël Chantal, Forslund Agneta, Marty Pauline, Manceron Stéphane, Marajo-Petitzon Elodie, Caillaud Marc-Antoine, Dumas Patrice, Schmitt Bertrand
INRAE, Institut Agro, SMART, F-35 000 Rennes, France.
Université de Technologie de Troyes, Pôle HETIC, F-10 000 Troyes, France.
Reg Environ Change. 2023;23(2):52. doi: 10.1007/s10113-023-02045-y. Epub 2023 Mar 21.
The dependence on imports of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for its food needs has increased steadily since the early 1960s, from 10% to about 40%. This import dependence could continue to rise in coming decades due to the projected MENA population growth and the expected negative impacts of climate change on the region's natural resources and agricultural performances. To what extent the food import dependency of the MENA region will continue to increase up to 2050 and how the region could mitigate its rising reliance on food imports is both a key question for the region itself and a crucial geopolitical issue for the world as a whole. In this paper, we use a biomass balance model to assess the level of the food import dependency of the MENA region in 2050 resulting from six scenarios. We show that under current trends and severe impacts of climate change the food import dependency of the MENA would continue to rise and reach 50% in 2050. Maghreb would be particularly affected becoming dependent on imports for almost 70% of its food needs. Adopting a Mediterranean diet, reaching faster productivity growth in agriculture or reducing waste and loss along the food chain would contribute to decelerate the rise of the MENA's food import dependency. However, only the combination of these three options could significantly offset the increased import dependency in the most affected sub-regions: Maghreb, the Middle and the Near East. In all scenarios, Turkey strengthens its position as a net exporter of agricultural products.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-023-02045-y.
自20世纪60年代初以来，中东和北非（MENA）地区对进口食品的依赖程度稳步上升，从10%增至约40%。由于预计中东和北非地区人口增长以及气候变化对该地区自然资源和农业生产的预期负面影响，未来几十年这种进口依赖可能会继续上升。到2050年，中东和北非地区的食品进口依赖程度将在多大程度上继续增加，以及该地区如何减轻其对食品进口日益增长的依赖，这不仅是该地区自身的关键问题，也是整个世界的重要地缘政治问题。在本文中，我们使用生物量平衡模型来评估六种情景下2050年中东和北非地区的食品进口依赖水平。我们表明，在当前趋势和气候变化的严重影响下，中东和北非地区的食品进口依赖将继续上升，并在2050年达到50%。马格里布地区将受到特别影响，其近70%的食品需求将依赖进口。采用地中海饮食、实现农业更快的生产率增长或减少食物链中的浪费和损失，将有助于减缓中东和北非地区食品进口依赖的上升。然而，只有这三种选择相结合，才能在受影响最严重的次区域：马格里布、中东和近东显著抵消进口依赖的增加。在所有情景中，土耳其都巩固了其作为农产品净出口国的地位。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s10113-023-02045-y获取的补充材料。
