Hancock Mary Everett, Mora Jesse
Occidental College, United States of America.
J Asian Econ. 2023 Jun;86:101596. doi: 10.1016/j.asieco.2023.101596. Epub 2023 Mar 18.
The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted international trade, leading countries to grapple with product shortages and firms to experience major supply chain issues. These challenges increased production costs and significantly contributed to lower trade and higher inflation. In this paper, we examine the impact of COVID-19 on Chinese trade through its two main trading partners: Japan and the US. By differentiating products by product type and processing status, we find evidence that products in the middle of the global supply chain were most affected by the pandemic and that the severity of the shock depends on the partner country's role in the global supply chain. Additionally, we find that Chinese exports are more impacted than Chinese imports, regardless of processing status. These findings are largely consistent with economic theory. Understanding that the effects of global shocks vary by product and country will help guide policies that minimize supply chain disruptions.
新冠疫情严重扰乱了国际贸易，导致各国应对产品短缺问题，企业也遭遇重大供应链问题。这些挑战增加了生产成本，极大地导致贸易下滑和通胀上升。在本文中，我们通过中国的两个主要贸易伙伴——日本和美国，研究新冠疫情对中国贸易的影响。通过按产品类型和加工状态对产品进行区分，我们发现有证据表明，全球供应链中游的产品受疫情影响最大，而且冲击的严重程度取决于伙伴国在全球供应链中的角色。此外，我们发现，无论加工状态如何，中国出口受到的影响都比进口更大。这些发现与经济理论在很大程度上是一致的。了解全球冲击的影响因产品和国家而异，将有助于指导旨在尽量减少供应链中断的政策。
