Li Chunding, Lin Xin
College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China.
J Asian Econ. 2021 Aug;75:101327. doi: 10.1016/j.asieco.2021.101327. Epub 2021 May 14.
This paper uses 2018 data as a benchmark to build a numerical 26-country global general equilibrium model with trade cost and an endogenous trade imbalance structure. We assume that COVID-19 will increase the trade cost between countries and decrease labor supply in production. We use China's trade data from January to April in 2020 to calibrate the influence level parameters and then simulate the trade effects of COVID-19 in China, the EU, the US, and the world. Our simulation results find that all countries' trade and exports will be significantly hurt by the pandemic. Due to the trade diversion effect and the price growth effect, some countries will see an increase in import trade. Comparatively, the pandemic has the most negative impact on global trade, followed by the EU, the US, and China. As the pandemic deepens, the negative impact on trade will increase. The worldwide pandemic has the most significant impact on US trade, with an effect about 1.5 times that of the average world effect.
本文以2018年数据为基准，构建了一个包含贸易成本和内生贸易失衡结构的26国全球一般均衡数值模型。我们假设新冠疫情将增加国家间的贸易成本，并减少生产中的劳动力供给。我们使用2020年1月至4月中国的贸易数据来校准影响水平参数，然后模拟新冠疫情对中国、欧盟、美国及全球的贸易影响。我们的模拟结果发现，疫情将严重损害所有国家的贸易和出口。由于贸易转移效应和价格增长效应，一些国家的进口贸易将有所增加。相比之下，疫情对全球贸易的负面影响最大，其次是欧盟、美国和中国。随着疫情的加剧，对贸易的负面影响将会增加。全球疫情对美国贸易的影响最为显著，其影响约为全球平均影响的1.5倍。
