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[奥密克戎变异株所致新型冠状病毒肺炎的潜伏期及相关因素]

[Latent period and incubation period with associated factors of COVID-19 caused by Omicron variant].

作者信息

Jiang X L, Qiu Y, Zhang Y P, Yang P, Huang B, Lin M, Ye Y, Gao F, Li D, Qin Y, Li Y, Li Z J

机构信息

Division of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.

Haidian District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100094, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2023 May 6;57(5):659-666. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20220926-00925.

Abstract

To estimate the latent period and incubation period of Omicron variant infections and analyze associated factors. From January 1 to June 30, 2022, 467 infections and 335 symptomatic infections in five local Omicron variant outbreaks in China were selected as the study subjects. The latent period and incubation period were estimated by using log-normal distribution and gamma distribution models, and the associated factors were analyzed by using the accelerated failure time model (AFT). The median (, ) age of 467 Omicron infections including 253 males (54.18%) was 26 (20, 39) years old. There were 132 asymptomatic infections (28.27%) and 335 (71.73%) symptomatic infections. The mean latent period of 467 Omicron infections was 2.65 (95%: 2.53-2.78) days, and 98% of infections were positive for nucleic acid test within 6.37 (95%: 5.86-6.82) days after infection. The mean incubation period of 335 symptomatic infections was 3.40 (95%: 3.25-3.57) days, and 97% of them developed clinical symptoms within 6.80 (95%: 6.34-7.22) days after infection. The results of the AFT model analysis showed that compared with the group aged 18-49 years old, the latent period [exp(β)=1.36 (95%: 1.16-1.60), <0.001] and incubation period [exp(β)=1.24 (95%: 1.07-1.45), 0.006] of infections aged 0-17 years old were prolonged. The latent period [exp(β)=1.38 (95%: 1.17-1.63), <0.001] and the incubation period [exp(β)=1.26 (95%: 1.06-1.48), =0.007] of infections aged 50 years old and above were also prolonged. The latent period and incubation period of most Omicron infections are within 7 days, and age may be a influencing factor of the latent period and incubation period.

摘要

为估算奥密克戎变异株感染的潜伏期和 incubation period 并分析相关因素。选取 2022 年 1 月 1 日至 6 月 30 日中国五起本地奥密克戎变异株疫情中的 467 例感染病例和 335 例有症状感染病例作为研究对象。采用对数正态分布和伽马分布模型估算潜伏期和 incubation period ,并使用加速失效时间模型(AFT)分析相关因素。467 例奥密克戎感染病例中,包括 253 名男性(54.18%),年龄中位数(, )为 26(20, 39)岁。无症状感染 132 例(28.27%),有症状感染 335 例(71.73%)。467 例奥密克戎感染的平均潜伏期为 2.65(95%:2.53 - 2.78)天,98%的感染在感染后 6.37(95%:5.86 - 6.82)天内核酸检测呈阳性。335 例有症状感染的平均 incubation period 为 3.40(95%:3.25 - 3.57)天,97%的患者在感染后 6.80(95%:6.34 - 7.22)天内出现临床症状。AFT 模型分析结果显示,与 18 - 49 岁年龄组相比,0 - 17 岁感染者的潜伏期[exp(β)=1.36(95%:1.16 - 1.60),<0.001]和 incubation period[exp(β)=1.24(95%:1.07 - 1.45),0.006]延长。50 岁及以上感染者的潜伏期[exp(β)=1.38(95%:1.17 - 1.63),<0.001]和 incubation period[exp(β)=1.26(95%:1.06 - 1.48),=0.007]也延长。多数奥密克戎感染的潜伏期和 incubation period 在 7 天内,年龄可能是潜伏期和 incubation period 的影响因素。

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