A Clinical Prediction Model of Overall Survival for Patients with Cervical Cancer Aged 25-69 Years.

This study aims to develop a prediction tool for the overall survival of cervical cancer patients. We obtained 4116 female patients diagnosed with cervical cancer aged 25-69 during 2008-2019 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. The overall survival between groups was illustrated by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by a log-rank test adjusted by the Bonferroni-Holm method. We first performed the multivariate Cox regression analysis to evaluate the predictive values of the variables. A prediction model was created using cox regression based on the training set, and the model was presented as a nomogram. The proposed nomogram was designed to predict the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year overall survival of patients with cervical cancer. Besides the c-index, time-dependent receiver operating curves, and calibration curves were created to evaluate the accuracy of the nomogram at the timepoint of one year, three years, and five years. With a median follow-up of 54 (28, 92) months, 1045 (25.39%) patients were deceased. Compared with alive individuals, the deceased were significantly older and the primary site was more likely to be the cervix uteri site, large tumor size, higher grade, and higher combined summary stage (all values < 0.001). In the multivariate Cox regression, age at diagnosis, race, tumor size, grade, combined summary stage, pathology, and surgery treatment were significantly associated with the all-cause mortality for patients with cervical cancer. The proposed nomogram showed good performance with a C-index of 0.82 in the training set. The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year areas under the curves (with 95% confidence interval) of the receiver operating curves were 0.88 (0.84, 0.91), 0.84 (0.81, 0.87), and 0.83 (0.80, 0.86), respectively. This study develops a prediction nomogram model for the overall survival of cervical cancer patients with a good performance. Further studies are required to validate the prediction model further.