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量化西南印度洋前期电容对印度同质性区域夏季季风降水变化的作用。

Quantifying the role of antecedent Southwestern Indian Ocean capacitance on the summer monsoon rainfall variability over homogeneous regions of India.

机构信息

Air, Water and Landscape Science (LUVAL), Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.

The Center for Environment and Development Studies Research Forum, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2023 Apr 5;13(1):5553. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-32840-w.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-023-32840-w
PMID:37020132
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10076287/
Abstract

The role of ocean variability is at a focal point in improving the weather and climate forecasts at different spatial and temporal scales. We study the effect of antecedent southwestern Indian Ocean mean sea level anomaly (MSLA) and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) as a proxy to upper ocean heat capacitance on all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) during 1993-2019. SSTA and MSLA over the southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) have been influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the impact of ENSO-induced SWIO variability was low on rainfall variability over several homogeneous regions. Rainfall over northeast (NE) and North India (EI) has been modulated by ENSO-induced SSTA and MSLA over SWIO, thus effecting the total AISMR magnitude. The ENSO-induced changes in heat capacitance (SSTA and MSLA) over SWIO during antecedent months has less impact on west coast of India, central India and North India (NI) rainfall variability. The long-term trend in pre-monsoonal SSTA and MSLA over SWIO shows decreasing rainfall trend over NI, NE, and EI in the recent time. Furthermore, the cooler (warmer) anomaly over the western Indian Ocean affects rainfall variability adversely (favourably) due to the reversal of the wind pattern during the pre-monsoon period. While SSTA and MSLA are increasing in the SWIO, large-scale variability of these parameters during preceding winter and pre-monsoon months combined with surface winds could impact the inter-annual AISMR variability over homogeneous regions of India. Similarly, from an oceanic perspective, the antecedent heat capacitance over SWIO on an inter-annual time scale has been the key to the extreme monsoon rainfall variability.

摘要

海洋变率在提高不同时空尺度的天气和气候预测方面起着核心作用。我们研究了西南印度洋平均海平面异常（MSLA）和海表温度异常（SSTA）作为上覆海洋热电容的前兆对 1993-2019 年全印度夏季季风降水（AISMR）的影响。西南印度洋（SWIO）的 SSTA 和 MSLA 受到厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的影响，ENSO 引起的 SWIO 变率对几个均质区域的降水变率影响较小。东北（NE）和北印度（EI）的降水受到 ENSO 引起的 SWIO SSTA 和 MSLA 的调制，从而影响了 AISMR 的总幅度。ENSO 引起的 SWIO 前期热电容（SSTA 和 MSLA）变化对印度西海岸、印度中部和北印度（NI）降水变率的影响较小。SWIO 上前期季风 SSTA 和 MSLA 的长期趋势显示，NI、NE 和 EI 的降水呈减少趋势。此外，由于前季风期风向反转，西印度洋较冷（较暖）异常对降水变率产生不利（有利）影响。当 SWIO 上的 SSTA 和 MSLA 增加时，这些参数在前冬和前季风月份的大尺度变率与地表风结合，可能会影响印度同质区域的年际 AISMR 变率。同样，从海洋角度来看，SWIO 上的前期热电容在年际时间尺度上是极端季风降水变率的关键。

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