Institute of Public Health, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Research Center for Epidemic Prevention and One Health, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan.
J Glob Health. 2023 Apr 7;13:06009. doi: 10.7189/jogh.13.06009.
The World Health Organization has raised concerns that vaccinated people may reduce physical and social distancing more than necessary. With imperfect vaccine protection and the lifting of mobility restrictions, understanding how human mobility responded to vaccination and its potential consequence is critical. We estimated vaccination-induced mobility (VM) and examined whether it attenuates the effect of COVID-19 vaccination on controlling case growth.
We collected a longitudinal data set of 107 countries between 15 February 2020 and 6 February 2022 from Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Our World in Data, and World Development Indicators. We measured mobility in four categories of location: retail and recreational places, transit stations, grocery stores and pharmacies, and workplaces. We applied panel data models to address unobserved country characteristics and used Gelbach decomposition to evaluate the extent to which VM has offset vaccination effectiveness.
Across locations, a 10-percentage-point (pp) increase in vaccine coverage was associated with a 1.4-4.3 pp increase in mobility (P < 0.001). VM was greater in lower-income countries (up to 7.9 pps; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 5.3 to 10.5, P < 0.001) and in earlier stages of vaccine rollouts (up to 19.2 pps; 95% CI = 15.1 to 23.2%, P < 0.001). VM decreased the effectiveness of vaccines in controlling case growth by 33.4% in retail and recreation places (P < 0.001), 26.4% in transit stations (P < 0.001), and 15.4% in grocery stores and pharmacies (P = 0.002).
VM provides support for the Peltzman effect; it attenuates but does not completely counter vaccine effectiveness. Our study findings suggest strategies for mitigating the unintended consequences of VM, including reducing short-term mobility responses after vaccination, prioritizing mobility in grocery-type places and workplaces, and accelerating rollouts at earlier stages of vaccination, especially in lower-income countries.
世界卫生组织担心接种疫苗的人可能会比实际需要的更多地减少身体和社交距离。随着疫苗保护效果并不完美以及移动限制的解除，了解人类移动性对疫苗接种的反应及其潜在后果至关重要。我们估计了疫苗接种引起的移动性（VM），并检查了它是否会削弱 COVID-19 疫苗接种对控制病例增长的效果。
我们从谷歌 COVID-19 社区流动性报告、牛津 COVID-19 政府应对追踪器、我们的世界数据和世界发展指标中收集了 2020 年 2 月 15 日至 2022 年 2 月 6 日期间 107 个国家的纵向数据集。我们在四个地点类别中衡量了流动性：零售和娱乐场所、交通站点、杂货店和药店以及工作场所。我们应用面板数据模型来解决未观察到的国家特征，并使用 Gelbach 分解来评估 VM 在多大程度上抵消了疫苗接种的效果。
在所有地点，疫苗覆盖率每增加 10 个百分点，流动性就会增加 1.4-4.3 个百分点（P<0.001）。VM 在低收入国家更大（高达 7.9 个百分点；95%置信区间（CI）=5.3 至 10.5，P<0.001），并且在疫苗推出的早期阶段更大（高达 19.2 个百分点；95%CI=15.1 至 23.2%，P<0.001）。VM 降低了疫苗在控制零售和娱乐场所病例增长方面的有效性 33.4%（P<0.001）、在交通站点方面降低了 26.4%（P<0.001）、在杂货店和药店方面降低了 15.4%（P=0.002）。
VM 为 Peltzman 效应提供了支持；它削弱了但并没有完全抵消疫苗的有效性。我们的研究结果表明了减轻 VM 意外后果的策略，包括在接种疫苗后减少短期移动性反应、优先考虑杂货店类型场所和工作场所的移动性、并在疫苗接种的早期阶段加速推出疫苗，特别是在低收入国家。
