Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China; Chengdu Plain Urban Meteorology and Environment Sichuan Provincial Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Chengdu 610225, China.
Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Jul 1;880:163273. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163273. Epub 2023 Apr 5.
The adverse health effects of PM have been well demonstrated by many studies. However, as a component of PM, evidence on the mortality risk of black carbon (BC) is still limited. In this study, based on the data of daily mean PM concentration, BC concentration, meteorological factors, total non-accidental (all-cause) and cardiovascular mortality in Shanghai and Nanjing during 2015-2016, a semi-parameter generalized additive model (GAM) in the time series and the constituent residual approach were employed to explore the exposure-response relationship between BC and human mortality in these two megacities of Yangtze River Delta, China. The main objective was to separate the health effects of BC from total PM, and compare the difference of mortality ER related to BC original concentration and adjusted concentration after controlling PM. Results showed that there were all significantly associated with daily mortality for PM and BC. The percentage excess risk (ER) increases in all-cause and cardiovascular categories were 1.68 % (95 % s 1.28, 2.08) and 2.16 % (95 % CI: 1.54, 2.79) with 1 μg/m increment in original BC concentration in Shanghai. And the ER in Nanjing was smaller than that in Shanghai. After eliminating PM confounding effects by a constituent residual approach, the BC residual concentration still had a strong significant ER. The ER for BC residual in Shanghai got an obvious increase, and ER of the cardiovascular mortality for all, females and males increased by 0.55 %, 1.46 % and 0.62 %, respectively, while the ER in Nanjing decreased slightly. It also revealed that females were more sensitive to the health risk associated with short-term BC exposure than males. Our findings provide additional important evidence and ER for mortality related to independent BC exposure. Therefore, BC emission reduction should be paid more attention in air pollution control strategies to reduce BC-related health burdens.
PM 对健康的不利影响已被许多研究证实。然而，作为 PM 的一个组成部分，关于黑碳 (BC) 对死亡率的影响的证据仍然有限。在这项研究中，基于 2015-2016 年上海和南京的每日平均 PM 浓度、BC 浓度、气象因素、全非意外（所有原因）和心血管死亡率数据，采用时间序列半参数广义相加模型 (GAM) 和成分残差法，探讨了长三角这两个特大城市 BC 与人群死亡率之间的暴露-反应关系。主要目的是将 BC 的健康影响与总 PM 区分开来，并比较控制 PM 后，与 BC 原始浓度和调整浓度相关的死亡率 ER 的差异。结果表明，PM 和 BC 与每日死亡率均呈显著相关。全因和心血管疾病类别的超额风险 (ER) 分别增加 1.68%（95%置信区间：1.28, 2.08）和 2.16%（95%置信区间：1.54, 2.79），原始 BC 浓度每增加 1μg/m。而南京的 ER 小于上海。通过成分残差法消除 PM 混杂影响后，BC 残差浓度仍具有较强的显著 ER。上海的 BC 残差 ER 明显增加，全因、女性和男性的心血管死亡率 ER 分别增加 0.55%、1.46%和 0.62%，而南京的 ER 略有下降。结果还表明，女性对短期 BC 暴露相关的健康风险比男性更敏感。我们的研究结果为死亡率与独立 BC 暴露相关的风险提供了额外的重要证据和 ER。因此，在空气污染控制策略中应更加重视减少 BC 排放，以降低与 BC 相关的健康负担。
