Andreoni Pietro, Aleluia Reis Lara, Drouet Laurent, Dessens Olivier, Fragkos Panagiotis, Pietzcker Robert, Pye Steve, Rodrigues Renato, Tavoni Massimo
RFF-CMCC European Institute for the Economics and the Environment, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Milan, Italy.
Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy.
iScience. 2023 Mar 11;26(4):106377. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106377. eCollection 2023 Apr 21.
Given concerns about the ambition and effectiveness of current climate policies, a case has been made for the combination of demand side policies such as carbon pricing with supply side bans on fossil fuel extraction. However, little is known about their interplay in the context of climate stabilization strategies. Here, we present a multi-model assessment quantifying the effectiveness of supply side policies and their interactions with demand-side ones. We explore a variety of fossil fuel bans with four integrated assessment models and find that international supply side policies reduce carbon emissions but not at sufficient levels to stabilize temperature increase to well below 2°C. When combined with demand side policies, supply side policies reduce the required carbon price, dampen reliance on CO removal technologies, and increase investment in renewable energy. The results indicate the opportunity to integrate fossil fuel bans alongside price-based policies when exploring pathways to reach ambitious mitigation targets.
鉴于对当前气候政策的目标和有效性的担忧，有人主张将碳定价等需求侧政策与化石燃料开采的供应侧禁令相结合。然而，对于它们在气候稳定战略背景下的相互作用，人们了解甚少。在此，我们进行了一项多模型评估，量化供应侧政策的有效性及其与需求侧政策的相互作用。我们使用四个综合评估模型探索了各种化石燃料禁令，发现国际供应侧政策可减少碳排放，但不足以将温度上升稳定在远低于2°C的水平。当与需求侧政策相结合时，供应侧政策可降低所需的碳价格，减少对碳去除技术的依赖，并增加对可再生能源的投资。结果表明，在探索实现宏伟减排目标的途径时，有机会将化石燃料禁令与基于价格的政策相结合。
