Department of Experimental and Applied Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.
The Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR), The Hague, The Netherlands.
Psychol Sci. 2023 Jun;34(6):670-682. doi: 10.1177/09567976231158570. Epub 2023 Apr 11.
A well-established finding is that beliefs in contradictory conspiracy theories (e.g., Princess Diana was murdered vs. faked her own death) are positively correlated. This is commonly interpreted as evidence that people systematically believe blatant inconsistencies. Here, we propose that the field has insufficiently acknowledged a compelling alternative explanation: Disbelieving both conspiracy theories also yields a positive correlation. In four preregistered studies (total = 7,641 adults), online participants evaluated 28 sets of contradictory conspiracy theories. Although the positive correlation was replicated in all cases, this was mostly due to participants who believed the official versions of these events (e.g., Princess Diana died in a car accident). Among participants who disbelieved these official stories, the correlation was inconsistent at best. A mini meta-analysis revealed a negative correlation among these participants, which was particularly due to the dead-or-alive cases. Apparently, researchers should reconsider the notion of systematic belief in contradictory conspiracy theories.
一个既定的发现是，对相互矛盾的阴谋论的信仰（例如，戴安娜王妃是被谋杀的与她自己伪造了死亡）是正相关的。这通常被解释为人们系统地相信明显矛盾的证据。在这里，我们提出，该领域尚未充分认识到一个令人信服的替代解释：既不相信阴谋论也会产生正相关。在四项预先注册的研究中（共 7641 名成年人），在线参与者评估了 28 组相互矛盾的阴谋论。尽管在所有情况下都复制了正相关，但这主要是由于参与者相信这些事件的官方版本（例如，戴安娜王妃死于车祸）。在不相信这些官方故事的参与者中，相关性最多是不一致的。一个小型元分析显示，这些参与者之间存在负相关，这主要是由于生死案例。显然，研究人员应该重新考虑系统地相信相互矛盾的阴谋论的概念。
