Leclercq Salomé, Szaffarczyk Sébastien, Leptourgos Pantelis, Yger Pierre, Fakhri Alexandra, Wathelet Marielle, Bouttier Vincent, Denève Sophie, Jardri Renaud
INSERM U1172, CHU Lille, Lille Neuroscience and Cognition Centre, CURE Platform, Fontan Hospital, Lille University, 59000, Lille, France.
Otto-Von-Guericke Universität Magdeburg, Magdeburg, Germany.
Sci Rep. 2024 Apr 18;14(1):9001. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-59434-4.
Sociopolitical crises causing uncertainty have accumulated in recent years, providing fertile ground for the emergence of conspiracy ideations. Computational models constitute valuable tools for understanding the mechanisms at play in the formation and rigidification of these unshakeable beliefs. Here, the Circular Inference model was used to capture associations between changes in perceptual inference and the dynamics of conspiracy ideations in times of uncertainty. A bistable perception task and conspiracy belief assessment focused on major sociopolitical events were administered to large populations from three polarized countries. We show that when uncertainty peaks, an overweighting of sensory information is associated with conspiracy ideations. Progressively, this exploration strategy gives way to an exploitation strategy in which increased adherence to conspiracy theories is associated with the amplification of prior information. Overall, the Circular Inference model sheds new light on the possible mechanisms underlying the progressive strengthening of conspiracy theories when individuals face highly uncertain situations.
近年来，导致不确定性的社会政治危机不断累积，为阴谋论的出现提供了沃土。计算模型是理解这些不可动摇信念形成和固化过程中所起机制的宝贵工具。在此，循环推理模型被用于捕捉不确定性时期感知推理变化与阴谋论动态之间的关联。针对来自三个两极分化国家的大量人群，实施了一项双稳态感知任务以及聚焦于重大社会政治事件的阴谋信念评估。我们发现，当不确定性达到峰值时，感官信息的过度加权与阴谋论相关。逐渐地，这种探索策略让位于一种利用策略，即对阴谋论的更强坚持与先验信息的放大相关。总体而言，循环推理模型为个体面对高度不确定情况时阴谋论逐渐强化的潜在机制提供了新的见解。
