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基于EOF技术和KZ滤波的2019—2021年中国臭氧时空变化及驱动因素

[Spatial-temporal Variation and Driving Factors of Ozone in China from 2019 to 2021 Based on EOF Technique and KZ Filter].

作者信息

Wang Hao-Qi, Zhang Yu-Fen, Luo Zhong-Wei, Wang Yan-Yang, Dai Qi-Li, Bi Xiao-Hui, Wu Jian-Hui, Feng Yin-Chang

机构信息

State Environment Protection Key Laboratory of Urban Particulate Air Pollution Prevention, China Meteorological Administration-Nankai University Cooperative Laboratory for Atmospheric Environment-Health Research, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin 300350, China.

出版信息

Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2023 Apr 8;44(4):1811-1820. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202204070.

Abstract

Based on the hourly O concentration data of 337 prefectural-level divisions and simultaneous surface meteorological data in China, we applied empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to analyze the main spatial patterns, variation trends, and main meteorological driving factors of O concentration in China from March to August in 2019-2021. In this study, a KZ (Kolmogorov-Zurbenko) filter was used to decompose the time series of O concentration and simultaneous meteorological factors into corresponding short-term, seasonal, and long-term components in 31 provincial capitals.Then, the stepwise regression was used to establish the relationship between O and meteorological factors. Ultimately, the long-term component of O concentration after "meteorological adjustment" was reconstructed. The results indicated that the first spatial patterns of O concentration showed a convergent change, that is, the volatility of O concentration was weakened in the high-value region of variability and enhanced in the low-value region.Before and after the meteorological adjustment, the variation trend of O concentration in different cities was different to some extent. The adjusted curve was "flatter" in most cities. Among them, Fuzhou, Haikou, Changsha, Taiyuan, Harbin, and Urumqi were greatly affected by emissions. Shijiazhuang, Jinan, and Guangzhou were greatly affected by meteorological conditions. Beijing, Tianjin, Changchun, and Kunming were greatly affected by emissions and meteorological conditions.

摘要

基于中国337个地级行政区的小时臭氧(O)浓度数据及同步地面气象数据,我们应用经验正交函数(EOF)分析,对2019 - 2021年3 - 8月中国臭氧浓度的主要空间格局、变化趋势及主要气象驱动因素进行了分析。本研究中,使用KZ(柯尔莫哥洛夫 - 祖尔本科)滤波器将31个省会城市的臭氧浓度时间序列及同步气象因子分解为相应的短期、季节和长期成分。然后,采用逐步回归法建立臭氧与气象因子之间的关系。最终,重建了“气象调整”后的臭氧浓度长期成分。结果表明,臭氧浓度的第一空间格局呈现收敛变化,即在变率高值区臭氧浓度波动减弱,在低值区增强。气象调整前后,不同城市臭氧浓度的变化趋势在一定程度上有所不同。调整后的曲线在大多数城市更“平缓”。其中,福州、海口、长沙、太原、哈尔滨和乌鲁木齐受排放影响较大。石家庄、济南和广州受气象条件影响较大。北京、天津、长春和昆明受排放和气象条件影响较大。

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