Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8604, Japan.
Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8687, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2023 Apr 17;13(1):6219. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-33413-7.
Climate impacts on crop production components other than yield, i.e., area and cropping intensity, remain under-studied. Here, we clarify climate-crop area relationships by analyzing subnational census area and yield data for six multi-rice cropping countries in South and Southeast Asia. Extreme climate has a greater influence on the departure of area and yield from long-term trends than the average seasonal climate; precipitation and temperature in the sowing period of the wet/rainfed season have a greater influence on variability of the total annual area than in the growing period. In 57% of the country-scenario cases showing significant changes in area and/or yield, the directions of the area and yield responses to climate are not synchronized, deriving non-significant production changes under projected climates. Climate-area relationships not only limit production shocks, but also clarify uncertainties associated with climate mitigation of agricultural land, where area markedly affects the scale of mitigation.
气候对作物生产组成部分（除产量外），即面积和复种指数的影响仍未得到充分研究。在这里，我们通过分析南亚和东南亚六个多稻种植国家的国家级普查区和产量数据，阐明了气候-作物面积的关系。极端气候对面积和产量偏离长期趋势的影响大于平均季节气候；湿/雨季播种期的降水和温度对全年总面积的变化影响大于生长季节。在 57%的国家情景案例中，面积和/或产量发生显著变化，面积和产量对气候的响应方向不同，在预测气候下，产量没有显著变化。气候-面积关系不仅限制了生产冲击，还阐明了与农业土地气候缓解相关的不确定性，其中面积显著影响缓解的规模。
