School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2023 Sep;30(3):375-391. doi: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2200768. Epub 2023 Apr 19.
Distraction and overspeed behaviors are acknowledged as two significant contributors to single-vehicle motorcycle crashes, injuries and fatalities resulting from which are severe and critical issues in Pakistan. To explore the temporal instability and differences in the factors determining the injury severities between single-vehicle motorcycle crashes caused by distraction and overspeed behaviors, this study estimated two groups of random parameter logit models with heterogeneity in means and variances. Single-vehicle motorcycle crash data in Rawalpindi city between 2017 and 2019 was used for model estimation, and a wide variety of explanatory variables relating to the rider, roadways, environments, and temporal attributes was simulated in the models. The current study considered three possible crash injury severity outcomes: minor injury, severe injury and fatal injury. Likelihood ratio tests were conducted to explore the temporal instability and non-transferability. Marginal effects were also calculated to further reveal temporal instability of the variables. Except for several variables, the most significant factors reported temporal instability and non-transferability, manifested as the effects varied from year to year and across different crashes. Moreover, out-of-sample prediction was also implemented to capture temporal instability and non-transferability between distraction and overspeed crash observations. The non-transferability between motorcycle crashes caused by distraction and overspeed behaviors provides insights into developing differentiated countermeasures and policies targeted at preventing and mitigating single-vehicle motorcycle crashes caused by the two risk-taking behaviors.
分心和超速行为被认为是导致单人摩托车事故的两个重要因素，由此造成的伤害和死亡是巴基斯坦严重和关键的问题。为了探讨分心和超速行为导致的单人摩托车事故中伤害严重程度的时间不稳定性和决定因素的差异，本研究使用均值和方差异质性的两组随机参数对数模型进行了估计。使用 2017 年至 2019 年拉瓦尔品第市的单人摩托车碰撞数据进行模型估计，并在模型中模拟了与骑手、道路、环境和时间属性相关的各种解释变量。本研究考虑了三种可能的碰撞伤害严重程度结果：轻伤、重伤和致命伤。进行了似然比检验，以探讨时间不稳定性和不可转移性。还计算了边际效应，以进一步揭示变量的时间不稳定性。除了几个变量外，报告的最重要因素表现出时间不稳定性和不可转移性，表现为效应随年份和不同碰撞而变化。此外，还实施了样本外预测，以捕捉分心和超速碰撞观察之间的时间不稳定性和不可转移性。分心和超速行为导致的摩托车事故之间的不可转移性为制定有针对性的预防和减轻由这两种冒险行为导致的单人摩托车事故的差异化对策和政策提供了思路。
