Meteorological disaster disturbances on the main crops in the north‒south transitional zone of China.

Global climate change, with warming as its main feature, has altered the spatial-temporal evolution of factors such as precipitation and temperature that can cause meteorological disasters. The complex and changeable climate has led to frequent natural disasters, while the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events have also significantly increased, posing an enormous threat to societal production and human life. As the most important geoecological transitional zone of mainland China, the stability of agricultural production in China's north-south transitional zone is crucial for ensuring food security under climate change. With the use of daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data from 1961 to 2018, this study focused on analysing disturbances such as extreme precipitation and drought disasters at different time scales during the winter wheat and summer maize growing seasons in the north-south transitional zone of China from an agricultural production perspective and attempted to answer the following questions: first, from an agricultural production perspective, what are the temporal and spatial distribution patterns of extreme precipitation and arid climate events in the north-south transitional zone? Second, which areas are at high risk of being disturbed by different types of meteorological disasters and require increased attention? The results indicated that (1) in terms of the overall temporal variation, the degree of extreme precipitation and drought stress faced by agricultural production in the region is decreasing. However, the temporal variation at each station in the north-south transitional zone was not completely consistent with the overall trend, and both increasing and decreasing trends were observed. The sites exhibiting an increase overlapped with typical regions of the north-south transitional zone to varying degrees, indicating that the typical regions represented not only theoretical potential risk areas under climate change but also suffered from meteorological disaster disturbances. (2) The precipitation distribution during the winter wheat growth period in the south-north transitional zone was uneven and varied significantly. High values of extreme precipitation indices during the winter wheat growth period were mainly concentrated in the southern part of the eastern section of the north‒south transitional zone. The precipitation distribution during the summer maize growth period significantly differed, with the highest amount of heavy rain and largest number of rainstorm days concentrated in the southeastern part of the north‒south transitional zone. The spatial distribution of the drought frequency in the north-south transitional zone, as indicated by the monthly standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), showed that the areas with high total drought frequencies were mainly concentrated in northeast Jiangsu, southeast Henan, and north Anhui, which primarily experienced light drought. The central part of Jiangsu Province exhibited a high frequency of moderate drought, while southern Jiangsu Province and southwestern Shaanxi Province were prone to severe drought. Additionally, southeastern Hebei and eastern Henan were identified as areas with a high frequency of extreme drought. Finally, the central region of Sichuan Province was characterized by both severe and extreme drought conditions. Based on the SPEI-derived spatial distribution of the drought frequency in the north-south transitional zone, the areas with a high total drought frequency were mainly concentrated in central and eastern Henan, southeast Shaanxi, southeast Shandong, and central Sichuan, which primarily experienced light to moderate drought. The northwestern part of Jiangsu, the southern part of Hebei, and the western part of Shandong are regions with a high frequency of severe drought, while the eastern part of Henan is an area with high frequencies of both severe and extreme drought. (3) High-value areas of extreme precipitation and drought disturbance in the north-south transitional zone overlapped with the edge of the transitional zone to varying degrees. Approximately 63.58% of the north‒south transitional zone of China was characterized by moderate or high stress levels, primarily concentrated along the southern boundary and central core area, and nearly 39.5% of all counties experienced two or more types of disaster stresses.