MINES-Paristech, Rue Claude Daunesse, Sophia Antipolis 06904, France.
MaREI, Environmental Research Institute & School of Engineering, University College Cork, College Road, Cork, Ireland.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Jul 15;882:163347. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163347. Epub 2023 Apr 19.
Wind energy is poised to play a major role in the energy transition. Fluctuations in global atmospheric circulation are expected as a result of climate change, and wind projections based on the most up-to-date scenarios of climate change, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), anticipate significant changes in wind energy potential in many regions; so far, these changes have not been studied in Southeastern Asia and Australasia, a region with notable wind energy potential. This work investigates the evolution of wind power density and its temporal variability considering the latest scenarios of climate change, the SSPs. More specifically, two scenarios are considered, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, corresponding to moderate and high emissions, respectively. As many as 18 global climate models are considered and compared against past-present data, and those that perform best are retained to build a large multi-model ensemble. The results show that projected changes in mean wind power density at the end of the 21st century are of little significance (typically below 5 %); nevertheless, this value can be far surpassed locally. In certain areas (e.g., Vietnam, Borneo) and seasons, remarkable changes in wind power density (exceeding 150 %) are anticipated. Typically, mean values and temporal variability changes are greater in the high-emissions scenario, however, seasonal variability is projected to be more pronounced in the moderate-emissions scenario. These effects of climate change on wind energy potential must be taken into account in the development of wind power in the region, for they will affect the energy production and, therefore, the economic viability of wind farms - not least in those areas where drastic changes are projected.
风能有望在能源转型中发挥重要作用。由于气候变化，预计全球大气环流将出现波动，基于气候变化最新情景（共享社会经济途径，SSPs）的风能预测预计许多地区的风能潜力将发生重大变化；迄今为止，这些变化在具有显著风能潜力的东南亚和澳大拉西亚地区尚未得到研究。这项工作研究了考虑最新气候变化情景 SSPs 下的风能密度及其时间变化的演变。具体来说，考虑了两种情景，SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5，分别对应中度和高度排放。考虑了多达 18 个全球气候模型，并将其与过去现在的数据进行了比较，选择表现最好的模型来构建大型多模型集合。结果表明，到 21 世纪末，预计平均风能密度的变化意义不大（通常低于 5%）；然而，在局部地区，这一数值可能会远远超过。在某些地区（如越南、婆罗洲）和季节，预计风能密度会发生显著变化（超过 150%）。通常，高排放情景下的平均值和时间变化较大，然而，预计在中度排放情景下，季节性变化将更为明显。在该地区开发风能时，必须考虑气候变化对风能潜力的这些影响，因为它们将影响能源生产，从而影响风电场的经济可行性——尤其是在预计会发生剧烈变化的地区。
