Zhuo Chen, Junhong Guo, Wei Li, Hongtao Jia, Xi Liang, Xiuquan Wang, Zhe Bao
School of Nuclear Science and Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China.
MOE Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Systems Optimization, Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Nov 20;900:165782. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165782. Epub 2023 Jul 24.
Large-scale wind energy development is one of the main paths to achieving China's carbon peak and neutrality goals. How will the wind power and corresponding carbon abatement potential (CAP) in China change when China reaches the timing of its reduction carbon targets? This issue has not been well addressed. In this paper, a weighted multi-model ensemble with 14 global climate models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is used to evaluate the spatio-temporal characteristics of wind speed over China during the baseline period (2004-2014). Then, we further analyze the changes in wind power and corresponding CAP due to the climate change over China in the two-level years (2030 and 2060) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results show that the wind capacity factor over China will have a trend of decreasing in most regions of China and increasing in the southeast in 2060. Overall, climate change will have a slight impact on the CAP of wind power in 2030, with an increase in some southern provinces. However, the CAP of wind power will decrease significantly in most regions of China in 2060 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, especially in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Liaoning, by more than 5 %. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the CAP will decrease significantly in the southwest and northwest regions, such as Sichuan and Qinghai, by 9.86 % and 8.19 % respectively. Central and South provinces such as Hunan and Hubei will increase by about 5 %. In terms of seasonal changes, the CAP of wind power will decrease significantly in summer under the SSP2-4.5 scenario (about -5.24 %) and SSP5-8.5 scenario (about -6.50 %).These findings can help policymakers make decisions as they establish plans for wind power expansion while taking the effects of climate change into account as they work toward China's carbon neutrality goal.
大规模风能开发是实现中国碳达峰和碳中和目标的主要途径之一。当中国达到其碳减排目标的时间节点时，中国的风电及相应的碳减排潜力（CAP）将如何变化？这个问题尚未得到很好的解决。本文利用耦合模式比较计划第6阶段（CMIP6）的14个全球气候模式构建加权多模式集合，评估基准期（2004—2014年）中国风速的时空特征。然后，我们进一步分析了在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下，2030年和2060年这两个水平年份中国气候变化导致的风电及相应CAP的变化。结果表明，到2060年，中国大部分地区的风电容量系数将呈下降趋势，而东南部地区将呈上升趋势。总体而言，气候变化对2030年风电的CAP影响较小，一些南部省份有所增加。然而，在SSP2-4.5情景下，到2060年中国大部分地区的风电CAP将显著下降，尤其是山西、内蒙古、宁夏和辽宁，降幅超过5%。在SSP5-8.5情景下，西南和西北地区如四川和青海的CAP将显著下降，分别下降9.86%和8.19%。湖南和湖北等中部和南部省份将增加约5%。在季节变化方面，在SSP2-4.5情景（约-5.24%）和SSP5-8.5情景（约-6.50%）下，夏季风电的CAP将显著下降。这些研究结果有助于政策制定者在制定风电扩张计划时做出决策，同时在朝着中国碳中和目标努力时考虑气候变化的影响。
