Institute of Marine Science and Technology, Shandong University, Binhai Road No.72, Qingdao, 266237, Shandong, China.
Institute of Marine Geology and Engineering, Qingdao, 266237, Shandong, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 May;30(25):66853-66866. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-27174-z. Epub 2023 Apr 26.
In the past few decades, with the country's rapid development, water pollution has become a significant problem many countries face. Most of the existing water quality evaluation uses a single time-invariant model to simulate the evolution process, which cannot directly describe the complex behavior of long-term water quality evolution. In addition, the traditional comprehensive index method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and gray pattern recognition have more subjective factors. It can lead to an inevitable subjectivity of the results and weak applicability. Given these shortcomings, this paper proposes a deep learning-improved comprehensive pollution index method to predict future water quality development. As a first processing step, the historical data is normalized. Three deep learning models, multilayer perceptron (MLP), recurrent neural network (RNN), and long short-term memory (LSTM), are used to train historical data. The optimal data prediction model is selected through simulation and comparative analysis of relevant measured data, and the improved entropy weight comprehensive pollution index method is applied to evaluate future water quality changes. Compared with the traditional time-invariant evaluation model, the feature of this model is that it can effectively reflect the development of water quality in the future. Moreover, the entropy weight method is introduced to balance the errors caused by subjective weight. The result shows that LSTM performs well in accurately identifying and predicting water quality. And the deep learning-improved comprehensive pollution index method can provide helpful information and enlightenment for water quality change, which can help improve the water quality prediction and scientific management of coastal water resources.
在过去几十年中,随着国家的快速发展,水污染已成为许多国家面临的重大问题。大多数现有的水质评价采用单一的时不变模型来模拟演化过程,无法直接描述长期水质演化的复杂行为。此外,传统的综合指数法、模糊综合评价和灰色模式识别具有更多的主观因素。这可能导致结果不可避免地具有主观性和较弱的适用性。鉴于这些缺点,本文提出了一种深度学习改进的综合污染指数法来预测未来的水质发展。作为第一步处理,历史数据被归一化。使用多层感知器(MLP)、递归神经网络(RNN)和长短期记忆(LSTM)三种深度学习模型对历史数据进行训练。通过对相关实测数据的模拟和对比分析,选择最佳的数据预测模型,并应用改进的熵权综合污染指数法来评估未来水质变化。与传统的时不变评价模型相比,该模型的特点是能够有效地反映未来水质的发展。此外,引入熵权法来平衡主观权重引起的误差。结果表明,LSTM 在准确识别和预测水质方面表现良好。深度学习改进的综合污染指数法可为水质变化提供有益的信息和启示,有助于提高沿海水资源的水质预测和科学管理水平。