预测那些新诊断为系统性红斑狼疮的患者中哪些可能发展为狼疮性肾炎。
Predicting patients who are likely to develop Lupus Nephritis of those newly diagnosed with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.
机构信息
Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA.
Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA.
出版信息
AMIA Annu Symp Proc. 2023 Apr 29;2022:221-230. eCollection 2022.
Patients diagnosed with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) suffer from a decreased quality of life, an increased risk of medical complications, and an increased risk of death. In particular, approximately 50% of SLE patients progress to develop lupus nephritis, which oftentimes leads to life-threatening end stage renal disease (ESRD) and requires dialysis or kidney transplant. The challenge is that lupus nephritis is diagnosed via a kidney biopsy, which is typically performed only after noticeable decreased kidney function, leaving little room for proactive or preventative measures. The ability to predict which patients are most likely to develop lupus nephritis has the potential to shift lupus nephritis disease management from reactive to proactive. We present a clinically useful prediction model to predict which patients with newly diagnosed SLE will go on to develop lupus nephritis in the next five years.
系统性红斑狼疮（SLE）患者的生活质量下降，发生医疗并发症的风险增加，死亡风险也增加。特别是，大约有 50%的 SLE 患者会进展为狼疮肾炎，这往往会导致危及生命的终末期肾病（ESRD），需要透析或肾移植。问题在于狼疮肾炎的诊断需要通过肾活检来进行，而肾活检通常仅在肾功能明显下降后才进行，因此几乎没有采取主动或预防措施的余地。能够预测哪些患者最有可能患上狼疮肾炎，有可能将狼疮肾炎的治疗从被动转为主动。我们提出了一种临床有用的预测模型，以预测新诊断的 SLE 患者在未来五年内发展为狼疮肾炎的可能性。
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