Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA; Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA; Department of Psychiatry, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Addict Behav. 2023 Sep;144:107743. doi: 10.1016/j.addbeh.2023.107743. Epub 2023 Apr 26.
For Black men of middle-age, the overdose mortality statistics are increasingly dire. To better understand the severity of the crisis, we estimated the cumulative risk of drug overdose deaths among non-Hispanic Black men in mid-life using a period life table approach. We report the chances of Black men aged 45 years dying of a drug overdose before age 60.
A period life table reflects what would happen to a hypothetical cohort if it experienced the prevailing age-specific probabilities of death. In our hypothetical cohort, we followed 100,000 non-Hispanic Black men aged 45 years for 15 years. All-cause death probabilities were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) 2021 life table series. Overdose mortality rates were obtained from the National Vital Statistics System through the Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC WONDER) database. We also constructed a period life table for a comparison group of White men.
The life table shows that, for Black men who are 45 years of age in the United States, 1 in 52 (nearly 2%) is expected to die of drug overdose before reaching age 60, if current mortality rates persist. For White men, the estimate is 1 in 91 men (about 1%). The life table also shows that from age 45 to 59 years, the number of overdose deaths increased in the cohort of Black men but decreased in White men.
This study extends our understanding of the immense loss to Black communities from the preventable drug deaths of Black men in middle-age.
对于中年的黑人男性来说，过量用药死亡率的统计数据愈发严峻。为了更深入地了解这场危机的严重程度，我们采用期间生命表法估计了中年非裔美国男性药物过量死亡的累积风险。我们报告了 45 岁的黑人男性在 60 岁之前死于药物过量的几率。
期间生命表反映了一个假设队列在经历当前特定年龄死亡率的情况下会发生什么。在我们的假设队列中，我们对 100,000 名年龄为 45 岁的非裔美国男性进行了为期 15 年的随访。全因死亡率数据来自国家卫生统计中心（NCHS）2021 年生命表系列。通过疾病控制与预防中心（CDC WONDER）广域在线流行病学研究数据系统（CDC WONDER）数据库从国家生命统计系统获得了过量死亡率数据。我们还为白人男性构建了一个期间生命表作为对比。
生命表显示，对于 45 岁的美国黑人男性，如果当前死亡率持续不变，那么有 1/52（近 2%）的人预计会在 60 岁之前死于药物过量。而对于白人男性，这一比例为 1/91（约 1%）。生命表还显示，在 45 岁至 59 岁之间，黑人男性队列中的过量死亡人数增加，而白人男性队列中的死亡人数则减少。
这项研究扩展了我们对中年黑人男性可预防药物过量死亡给黑人社区带来巨大损失的认识。
